Everyone Waiting For A Bitcoin Dip Is About To Get Left Behind | James Check

Mentor Sessions Episode 100: James Check breaks down Bitcoin market cycles, on-chain data, the bull market transition, and his end-of-year $100K price target for 2026Bitcoin just flipped from bear to bull and the on-chain data proves it: more than half of all invested wealth is now in profit, up from just 8% at the $58K lows. James Check returns to break down exactly what changed and where the cycle goes next.You'll learn why James called the bottom back in July and what the run from the low $60s to $86K revealed on-chain. You'll see his four-phase market cycle model, how short-term and long-term holder cost basis acts as resistance, and why 90% of ETF buyers were underwater before $8 billion in outflows hit the bottom. You'll also hear his honest end-of-year outlook, his left/mid/right curve scenarios, and why he believes dips will most likely be bought from here.This is a measured, data-first conversation for anyone navigating the transition out of a bear market without getting chopped up.⏱️ Timestamps:0:00 - Intro0:42 - Confirming the Bull Market1:24 - On-Chain Data Reveals Human Emotion1:36 - Price Pain Versus Time Pain Capitulation2:13 - Macro Trends Begin on One-Second Charts3:13 - Two Legs Up and Short Squeezes4:27 - Wealth in Profit Jumps From 8% to 55%5:27 - Bear Market PTSD and Transition6:25 - Will Old Buyers Sell at Break-Even?7:22 - Who Bought Bitcoin at $64K?8:04 - Four Seasons of Holder Behavior9:39 - Volume Rising Across Exchanges10:24 - Anything Missed in the Bear Market?11:42 - ETFs Bought Tops and Sold Bottoms13:07 - How 20% of Coins Drive 55% Drawdowns15:11 - What a True Catastrophic Event Looks Like15:48 - $100K Resistance and Silent IPO18:09 - Why the Next All-Time High Feels Special19:46 - Low-Fee ETF Flows Gaining Traction21:19 - Why Companies Avoid Bitcoin on Balance Sheets23:01 - Housing Markets Push Rotation Into Bitcoin24:00 - Bitcoin Is Not Set and Forget28:18 - Personal Signals Confirming the Bottom30:40 - Testing Fear Versus Greed Titles31:04 - Why Brains Are Wired to Lose Money32:57 - Is the DCA Strategy Still Active?33:46 - Maxing Purchases at $60K40:40 - Bull Market Lines of Defense44:34 - Tracking the Hot Ball of Money53:47 - AI CapEx Compared to Bitcoin Mining59:48 - End-of-Year Price Targets Left Mid Right1:02:47 - Disbelief Rally Remains Alive and Well🔗 Links & Resources:→ James Check's newsletter & Checkonchain charts: https://checkonchain.com→ James X.com: https://x.com/_Checkmatey_🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor⚡Case MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions10% Off First Year Promo Code SESSIONS⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOINhttps://qrco.de/bfiDC6💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more. 👉 Visit btcmentor.io #Bitcoin #BTC #Bitcoin100K #BTCSessions #JamesCheck #Checkonchain #OnChainData #BitcoinMarketCycle #BitcoinBullMarket #BullMarket #BearMarket #BitcoinAnalysis #BitcoinPrice #BitcoinETF #CostBasis #SelfCustody #Glassnode