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Eye On The Market: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Michael Cembalest
Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.
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The most recent episodes — sign up to get AI-powered summaries of each one.
- 1 weeks ago35 min
The Summer I Turned Pretty
I mean pretty as an adverb, as in pretty cautious on cyber risks, open and closed weight challenges to the frontier labs seeking to go public and some market technicals related to AI. Watch the video
- Jun 23, 202634 min
Semiquincententacles
Semiquincententacles: The US grip on markets on the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence Behold the Aquilaceph, half-bald eagle and half-octopus. On the semiquincentennial 250th anniversary of the US Declaration of Independence, this imaginary beast is a metaphor for the continued US grip on financial markets. In this special issue we look at the details: US reserve currency status, capital flows, the much anticipated but still unprofitable “Sell America” trade, US corporate profitability and productivity in the age of AI, investing in Security & Resilience, equity market concentration, energy independence and the revival of the US IPO market. The biggest medium-term concerns for investors in US assets, other than the sustainability of the US Federal debt and cyclical inflationary pressures: the increased unpredictability in the rule of law, and government defunding of science and sidelining of scientific expertise. Watch the video
- May 26, 202627 min
Home Alone: inflation and the new Fed chair; investing in China’s AI ecosystem; Prediction markets
The new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, like Kevin McAllister in Home Alone, faces a lonely vigil: survive until the adults get home again. The latest on inflation, rising Treasury yields, shrinking equity risk premia and pressure from the White House. Also: investing in China’s home-grown AI ecosystem, and the predation in prediction markets. Watch the video
- May 4, 202630 min
Abandon Ship!
Abandon Ship! Topics: midterm elections, Spring thaw in US economic data, Strait of Hormuz oil rationing timeline, AI and data center update, Gulf State pipe dream, Congressional redistricting and Mythos update Summary: Despite improving US leading indicators and economic/stock market resilience, GOP House members are abandoning ship at a record pace. The midterm challenges for the GOP include declining blue-collar employment, soaring ACA premiums, a surge in commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and some unorthodox choices at the Department of Justice. Watch the video
- Apr 6, 202618 min
Salem’s Lot: Gulf War update; the Purge of senior US military officers; a US fossil fuel reliance fever dream
Salem’s Lot: an update on the Gulf War. Topics include international commodity price pass-throughs to the US, the limits of energy independence, Gulf temperatures and their relevance to US military options, the proposed Iranian toll on the Strait of Hormuz, the cost per payload of asymmetric warfare and our commodity price tracker. Also: the history of Presidential firings of senior US military officers, and a US fossil fuel reliance fever dream. Watch the video
- Mar 3, 202639 min
Fighting Words: The Energy Transition in 2026
Fighting Words. This year we look at energy arguments, battles and debates: the impact of data centers on power prices, the cost of solar plus storage as baseload power, the “primary energy fallacy” that ignores waste heat, the true cost of small modular reactors, Germany’s decision to shut down nuclear, China’s dominance of renewable supply chains, solid oxide fuel cells as turbine alternatives, the materiality of demand response, staffing cuts at the EIA, the hype around geothermal and geologic hydrogen, the misplaced fascination with small country energy transitions, satellite vs factor-based oil & gas basin methane emissions, the mostly profitless EV industry, xAI mobile gas plant permits, negligible progress on carbon capture and renewable fuels, and the unfavorable economics of charging my Jeep Wrangler hybrid. Watch the video
- Feb 5, 202625 min
Supply and The Mam
New York City now has one of the tightest housing markets since 1960. Watch the video
- Jan 1, 202635 min
Eye on the Market Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights
In this year’s EOTM Outlook by Michael Cembalest, we focus on four risks: US power generation constraints, China on its own, Taiwan and hyperscaler profits. View video here
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