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Eye On The Market: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Michael Cembalest
Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.
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The most recent episodes — sign up to get AI-powered summaries of each one.
- 1 weeks ago27 min
Home Alone: inflation and the new Fed chair; investing in China’s AI ecosystem; Prediction markets
The new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, like Kevin McAllister in Home Alone, faces a lonely vigil: survive until the adults get home again. The latest on inflation, rising Treasury yields, shrinking equity risk premia and pressure from the White House. Also: investing in China’s home-grown AI ecosystem, and the predation in prediction markets. Watch the video
- May 4, 202630 min
Abandon Ship!
Abandon Ship! Topics: midterm elections, Spring thaw in US economic data, Strait of Hormuz oil rationing timeline, AI and data center update, Gulf State pipe dream, Congressional redistricting and Mythos update Summary: Despite improving US leading indicators and economic/stock market resilience, GOP House members are abandoning ship at a record pace. The midterm challenges for the GOP include declining blue-collar employment, soaring ACA premiums, a surge in commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and some unorthodox choices at the Department of Justice. Watch the video
- Apr 6, 202618 min
Salem’s Lot: Gulf War update; the Purge of senior US military officers; a US fossil fuel reliance fever dream
Salem’s Lot: an update on the Gulf War. Topics include international commodity price pass-throughs to the US, the limits of energy independence, Gulf temperatures and their relevance to US military options, the proposed Iranian toll on the Strait of Hormuz, the cost per payload of asymmetric warfare and our commodity price tracker. Also: the history of Presidential firings of senior US military officers, and a US fossil fuel reliance fever dream. Watch the video
- Mar 3, 202639 min
Fighting Words: The Energy Transition in 2026
Fighting Words. This year we look at energy arguments, battles and debates: the impact of data centers on power prices, the cost of solar plus storage as baseload power, the “primary energy fallacy” that ignores waste heat, the true cost of small modular reactors, Germany’s decision to shut down nuclear, China’s dominance of renewable supply chains, solid oxide fuel cells as turbine alternatives, the materiality of demand response, staffing cuts at the EIA, the hype around geothermal and geologic hydrogen, the misplaced fascination with small country energy transitions, satellite vs factor-based oil & gas basin methane emissions, the mostly profitless EV industry, xAI mobile gas plant permits, negligible progress on carbon capture and renewable fuels, and the unfavorable economics of charging my Jeep Wrangler hybrid. Watch the video
- Feb 5, 202625 min
Supply and The Mam
New York City now has one of the tightest housing markets since 1960. Watch the video
- Jan 1, 202635 min
Eye on the Market Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights
In this year’s EOTM Outlook by Michael Cembalest, we focus on four risks: US power generation constraints, China on its own, Taiwan and hyperscaler profits. View video here
- Dec 2, 202535 min
The Deep End: 2025 Alternative Investments Review
On the surface not much has changed since our last review two years ago. View video here
- Nov 5, 202523 min
The winter of our discontent: generative AI disrupts the entertainment industry content moat
While the prior decade was defined by disruption in content distribution, the next decade will be defined by disruption in content creation, augmented by generative AI. This month’s Eye on the Market looks at the rapidly shifting fortunes in legacy cable/broadcast shares vs streaming, the rise of social media as a platform for consuming all forms of content, rising acceptance of user-generated content and the increasing democratization of text-to-video tools used to create it, the value of the legacy content moat in film/tv libraries and the best movies of the 21st century (as ranked by me). View video here
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