Freakonomics Radio

687. Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?

September 18, 2026·48 min·6-min readnarrativetechnology
Podzilla Summary (6 min)
TLDR
Prediction markets, platforms where people bet on future events, are presented as a potentially transformative tool for aggregating accurate information and improving decision-making across politics, finance, and culture, though they face skepticism, regulatory hurdles, and ethical concer

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Guest

T

Tarek Mansour

narrative on Freakonomics Radio

Mentions

Books, people, and resources mentioned in this episode.

People

Stephen DubnerTarek MansourNicole KaganRobin HansonPhilip TetlockFriedrich Hayek

Books

Superforecastingby Philip Tetlock

Companies

KalshiPolymarket

Research & Papers

Iowa Electronic Markets

Topics

EconomicsFuture Of WorkPolitical News

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