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Patrick Boyle On Finance: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Patrick Boyle
This podcast is all about quantitative finance and financial history. Hear about financial markets, derivatives, and how investors use quantitative tools from statistics and corporate finance theory. Includes interviews with some of the most interesting thinkers in finance. Occasional longer form financial documentaries explore fascinating elements of financial markets history. Patrick Boyle is a quantitative hedge fund manager, a university professor, and a former investment banker.
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- 2 days ago37 min
Where is Venezuela’s oil money?
When the United States took control of Venezuela's oil exports in early 2026, it collected an estimated $13 billion in crude sales — but the official ledger in Caracas records almost none of it, and six months on there is still no public accounting of where the money went. In this video we look at what happened to Venezuela's sovereign wealth: the missing oil revenues now sitting in an offshore account in Qatar, the four billion dollars of Venezuelan gold frozen in the vaults of the Bank of England that no one can legally claim, and the court-ordered auction that handed Citgo's parent company to an affiliate of Paul Singer's Elliott Management for nearly $6 billion. Along the way we explain the legal machinery that makes all of this possible — the alter ego doctrine, sovereign immunity and the Bancec ruling, the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act, and the "one voice" principle in English law — and the broader lesson for anyone trying to understand sovereign assets: a nation's wealth held abroad is only yours for as long as someone else's courts, banks and vaults agree that it is. We also cover the aftermath of the June earthquakes, the international relief effort, and why the question of who legitimately governs Venezuela sits at the centre of every one of these disputes.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
- 3 days ago37 min
Where is Venezuela’s oil money?
When the United States took control of Venezuela's oil exports in early 2026, it collected an estimated $13 billion in crude sales — but the official ledger in Caracas records almost none of it, and six months on there is still no public accounting of where the money went. In this video we look at what happened to Venezuela's sovereign wealth: the missing oil revenues now sitting in an offshore account in Qatar, the four billion dollars of Venezuelan gold frozen in the vaults of the Bank of England that no one can legally claim, and the court-ordered auction that handed Citgo's parent company to an affiliate of Paul Singer's Elliott Management for nearly $6 billion. Along the way we explain the legal machinery that makes all of this possible — the alter ego doctrine, sovereign immunity and the Bancec ruling, the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act, and the "one voice" principle in English law — and the broader lesson for anyone trying to understand sovereign assets: a nation's wealth held abroad is only yours for as long as someone else's courts, banks and vaults agree that it is. We also cover the aftermath of the June earthquakes, the international relief effort, and why the question of who legitimately governs Venezuela sits at the centre of every one of these disputes.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
- 1 weeks ago37 min
The World's Best Stock Market Is Also Crashing!
South Korea has the best performing stock market in the world for the second year running — and it's also in the middle of one of the worst bear markets on earth. The KOSPI is down around 27% from its June peak, more than 1.2 million retail accounts have been hit with margin calls, and hundreds of thousands of Korean investors have been wiped out entirely. But this isn't a story about meme stocks or worthless companies. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are enormously profitable businesses at the center of the global AI boom, and the traders buying them were right about the trend. In this video I look at how a national stock index became a two-stock bet on artificial intelligence, how single-stock leveraged ETFs turned ordinary volatility into a mechanical feedback loop, why Korea's retail "ants" took on so much leverage in the first place, and what Victor Haghani's famous biased-coin experiment tells us about how you can be completely right about a market and still lose everything.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
- 2 weeks ago33 min
Is Russia Actually Losing?
Russia's war economy is running out of road. Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked out roughly a third of Russia's oil refining capacity, forcing an energy superpower to ration petrol at home and import gasoline from India — while Crimea sits under a state of emergency with the air-raid sirens switched off so the tourists aren't disturbed. In this video we look at what the numbers actually say: a contracting economy despite record military spending, a National Wealth Fund down from 6.5% of GDP to 1.8%, a first-quarter budget deficit that blew through the entire year's target in ninety days, and a banking system quietly commandeered to keep the tank factories running. We look at how China has turned the "no limits" partnership into a very one-sided arrangement, why Europe's largest rearmament since the Cold War sent defence stocks down, whether Europe actually needs expensive American fighter jets or is simply paying tribute to Washington — and what the Russian endgame realistically looks like, according to a Russian billionaire who is not a dissident. Featuring the Kiel Institute's "Endgame" report, Tucker Carlson's demon, and the parade Vladimir Putin had to get Zelensky's permission to hold.Most of the economic figures in this video came from the Kiel Institute paper - Endgame: Russia’s war economy hits its limits. https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/news/endgame-russias-war-economy-hits-its-limits/Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
- 3 weeks ago26 min
The Real Reason European Cars Can't Compete
Europe's automotive industry is facing a historic crisis as Volkswagen weighs unprecedented factory closures and massive job cuts. However, the root of the problem isn't just high energy costs or European bureaucracy—it's China Shock 2.0. With Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers building cars significantly faster and for thousands of euros less, traditional German automakers are rapidly losing market share both at home and abroad. This video analyzes the structural trade imbalances flooding the market with subsidized EVs, explains why laying off workers won't solve Volkswagen's €6,000 per-car cost gap, and examines whether new European Union tariffs will protect domestic manufacturing or simply trigger a costly global trade war.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
- Jun 28, 202637 min
Brexit, 10 Years On: What It Actually Cost Britain
Ten years on from the 2016 Brexit referendum, the UK is about to appoint its seventh Prime Minister in a decade — so was Brexit worth it? In this video we break down the real economic impact of Brexit: how much it actually cost the UK economy, why the doom-laden Treasury forecasts and the Leave campaign's £350 million NHS bus were both wrong, and what the data really shows about GDP, trade, the City of London, and business investment. We dig into the goods-versus-services split, why the people who voted Leave were hit hardest while the metropolitan elites worked around it, the great post-Brexit immigration paradox and the "Boriswave," whether Britain is really "poorer than Mississippi," and why both Brexit and the new "Rejoin" campaign rely on the same magical thinking. Finally, we look at Brexit as a global turning point — the first crack in the post-Cold-War order — and ask why ten years of arguing about Europe distracted Britain from the domestic problems actually driving its economic stagnation. Featuring research from the NBER, the OBR, the Bank of England, The Economist, the Financial Times and The Atlantic.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
- Jun 21, 202628 min
The US Government Gave Anthropic 90 Minutes to Shut Down Its AI
Last week, shortly after Anthropic launched its most powerful AI models, the U.S. government imposed export controls restricting foreign nationals from accessing them - and rather than try to verify the citizenship of every user on the planet within ninety minutes, Anthropic shut the models down for everyone. In this video we look at what actually happened: the Commerce Department's "is informed" letter, the deemed-export rules that locked Anthropic's own engineers out of their work, the claim that the "national security threat" was essentially an AI fixing software bugs, and the awkward detail that the partner who reported it was Amazon - Anthropic's largest backer and a direct competitor. We also dig into why all of this matters for Anthropic's near-trillion-dollar valuation, the winner-takes-all assumptions behind frontier AI, the rise of cheap open-source Chinese models, and whether there's really any such thing as a monopoly on math.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
- Jun 14, 202639 min
What SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI’s IPOs mean for investors
Yesterday SpaceX became the largest company ever to go public, in an IPO that values Elon Musk's rocket-and-AI conglomerate at $1.78 trillion. But SpaceX is just the first. Anthropic and OpenAI have both filed to go public, Alphabet has just raised a record $85 billion in new stock, and Meta is reportedly considering doing the same. Goldman Sachs expects as much as $675 billion of new equity to hit the market this year.For two decades the stock market did nothing but shrink — companies stayed private, bought back their own shares, and got taken private by private equity, leaving less and less stock to go around. That era is now over. In this video I look at why all of this is happening at once, what the AI buildout has to do with it, why the SpaceX deal has been such an awkward experience for Wall Street, what the prospectus actually reveals about where the $75 billion is going, and whether any of it is a good investment — with a look back at what happened to people who bought Cisco at the top in 2000.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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About Patrick Boyle On Finance
This podcast is all about quantitative finance and financial history. Hear about financial markets, derivatives, and how investors use quantitative tools from statistics and corporate finance theory. Includes interviews with some of the most interesting thinkers in finance. Occasional longer form financial documentaries explore fascinating elements of financial markets history. Patrick Boyle is a quantitative hedge fund manager, a university professor, and a former investment banker.
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