Cerebras IPO: S1 Breakdown - The Giant Chip, the OpenAI Deal, and the $24B Backlog

Cerebras is going public with the largest commercial chip ever built, $510M in 2025 revenue, and a $24.6B backlog mostly tied to OpenAI. CJ breaks down the company’s wafer-scale AI bet, why inference changed the story, the strange customer-investor-lender relationships behind the IPO, and the big question: is Cerebras the next NVIDIA-style infrastructure winner, or a concentrated hardware company with a very expensive cloud pivot?—SPONSORS:SpendHound is a SaaS spend management platform built for finance and procurement teams that want visibility and leverage in every deal. By tracking all your software, benchmarking pricing across thousands of vendors, and surfacing contracts and renewals, SpendHound helps you stop overpaying and negotiate with confidence. Trusted by teams at ZoomInfo and Hootsuite. Get started at https://www.spendhound.com/cjBrex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metricsAleph is a modern FP&A platform built for teams that want more than another planning tool. By connecting your ERP, CRM, and other systems into one trusted data layer with AI workflows, Aleph helps you move faster with real-time insights. Get a personalized demo at https://www.getaleph.com/runRightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for teams that have outgrown spreadsheets and billing tool workarounds. It handles high-volume subscriptions, usage-based contracts, and mid-cycle upgrades, so you can scale without scrambling at month-end. For RevRec that keeps your books clean, visit https://www.rightrev.com/CJRillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cjEY works with high-growth tech companies to navigate the messy realities of scaling—from regulatory requirements to IPO readiness. By helping teams get it right early and often, EY lets founders stay focused on building while reducing risk as they grow. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups—LINKS: Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsNCJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—TIMESTAMPS:0:00 Preview and intro0:59 Cerebras: the dinner plate chip3:56 Why chip size matters for AI5:26 Old vs. new AI: inference is the bottleneck7:30 Revenue: 20x in 3 years7:49 Sponsors — SpendHound | Brex | Aleph11:33 Gross margin12:02 Net income: the one-time accounting trick12:41 Operating cash flow whipsaw13:24 RPO: $24.6B backlog13:58 Customer concentration: the UAE entities18:06 Sponsors — RightRev | Rillet | EY21:05 Cloud revenue: the inverse SaaS story22:23 Cloud gross margin collapse23:53 G42 warrants for pennies29:14 The OpenAI warrant: Funky Town31:08 $40B market cap milestone31:36 R&D and S&M breakdown33:15 Balance sheet and cash burn35:59 Red flag 1: accounting weaknesses36:37 Red flag 2: one foundry, no supply deal37:28 Red flag 3: UAE geopolitical risk38:10 Red flag 4: cloud is unproven39:02 Cap table: founders diluted40:43 Voting control: Class A, B, and N41:15 Valuation: 10–13x forward revenue41:48 Peer comparison43:47 CEO's prior issues46:10 CreditsNothing said or created by this podcast is business or investment advice#RunTheNumbersPodcast #IPO #Semiconductors #AIStrategy #FinanceLeadership