Ep. 1990: Luck Isn’t Skill

One lucky streak can feel like investing genius—but anecdotes are not evidence. Don and Tom examine leveraged ETFs such as TQQQ, the brutal losses leverage can magnify, and why surviving a good run does not prove a strategy is sound. They answer a federal employee’s question about the TSP C, S, and I funds, explaining why a favorable 2003–2025 backtest cannot tell us what comes next and why diversification is still about reducing concentration risk. Then they dissect slick “hybrid pension” an...