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The Julia La Roche Show: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Julia La Roche
Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.
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- Today33 min
#416 Chris Whalen: Cheap Credit Is Over, K-Shaped Economy Becoming an L, Long Energy & Short Financials
The Wrap with Chris Whalen is back after a weak jobs report, with just 29,000 jobs added against expectations of 90,000, and long-term yields still elevated. Chris argues that rising bond yields reflect real inflation running in the mid-to-high single digits, well above the official numbers, and that the era of Fed-suppressed rates that began in 2008 is over. He expects the Fed to hold in October and possibly hike in November, and makes the case that Powell gave Trump nearly everything he wanted while incoming Chair Warsh is a hawk. Chris explains why $8–9 diesel and high replacement costs mean building more homes won't fix affordability, and why consumer credit stress is spreading upward. In his words, the K-shaped economy is "fast becoming an L." He reveals he's now short a couple of bank names, has rotated heavily into energy, and sees "long energy, short financials" as the trade for the next year or two. He also previews a tough midterm for Republicans, answers a viewer question on raising taxes, and discusses Judy Shelton's move to Treasury and his critique of the FASB's mortgage servicing rights proposal.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571XUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 – Welcome to The Wrap0:18 – Jobs report misses badly, but yields stay high1:28 – Is real inflation higher than the official stats?2:51 – October FOMC: hike, hold, or wait for November?4:20 – Powell gave Trump everything he wanted6:24 – The easy environment is over: diesel and demand destruction7:36 – Why building more homes won't fix affordability9:28 – 7%+ mortgage rates and pain in the mortgage industry10:40 – Portfolio rebalancing: selling financials, buying energy11:43 – Cracks in consumer credit13:01 – Restaurant and grocery margins (and the Publix real estate play)14:45 – The K-shaped economy is becoming an L17:11 – Why Chris is bearish on banks and shorting a few18:34 – Is a recession ahead?18:56 – Midterms, affordability, and Trump's lame-duck period21:29 – Will Warsh give Trump what he wants?23:36 – Viewer Q: Why not raise taxes to cut the deficit?25:36 – Judy Shelton joins Treasury, and gold as money27:01 – Chris critiques the FASB mortgage servicing rights proposal29:08 – What Chris is watching: credit markets and Q3 earnings31:18 – Why this year will be remembered as extraordinary31:58 – Wrap-up
- 2 days ago54 min
#415 Dr. Mark Thornton: The Bond Market Is Flashing a Warning Nobody in Washington Wants to Fix
Dr. Mark Thornton, Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute, joins Julia to explain why the bond market is the pivotal story right now. The 10- and 30-year Treasury yields are back above 5%, the national debt is over $40 trillion, and deficits are running at about $2 trillion a year. Thornton argues that this is wartime-level borrowing during supposedly good times. It crowds out private investment, weighs on wages, and widens the K-shaped divide between asset owners and everyone else. He explains why he thinks the Fed's recent hike won't be its last. In his view, Chairman Warsh and Secretary Bessent are managing the problem rather than solving it, and a market break or crisis could give the Fed cover to restart money printing. He describes the US as merging onto the "highway to hyperinflation," draws on historical cases from Revolutionary France to Weimar Germany, and closes with why he expects hard assets and commodities to outperform financial assets over the next decade.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/LinksX: https://x.com/DrMarkThorntonFree Hayek book: https://store.mises.org/Hayek-for-the-21st-Century-P11367.aspxMises Institute: https://mises.org/profile/mark-thorntonTimestamps: 0:00 Intro: Why bonds are the big worry0:43 Big picture: 10- and 30-year yields at 25-year highs4:24 Are we in a new higher-rate regime?11:48 Wartime deficits in "good times"18:21 Who wins and who loses from easy money20:25 Young people, housing, and the K-shaped economy24:02 Food, energy, and the Persian Gulf conflict28:10 Are we on the on-ramp to hyperinflation?34:03 Fed rate hikes: more coming, and what's next39:27 No consequences: the "magic checkbook"47:28 How to protect yourself: hard assets51:28 Where to find Dr. Thornton's work
- 4 days ago56 min
#414 Andy Constan: Markets Vulnerable to Disappointment, Cautious on Equities, and the 60/40 Strikes Back
Andy Constan, founder and CIO of Damped Spring and a veteran of Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, makes his debut on The Julia La Roche Show. He lays out his four-pillar macro framework and explains why he's turning cautious on equities despite a strong U.S. economy. His "pie theory" argues that the earnings AI companies are promising add up to more than the GDP available to deliver them. His "hamburger theory" warns that the massive borrowing needed to fund AI capex could stall if capital markets take a breather. With rates spiking for the seventh time since COVID, Constan doubts policymakers will engineer another V-top. He is currently short equities and max long long-term bonds, arguing that the much-maligned 60/40 portfolio is finally worth owning again. He also gives his early read on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, explains what it would really take to kill inflation, and argues that this cycle has no clean historical analog because it's fueled by public-sector rather than private-sector debt. He closes with the story of analyzing every trade from the 1987 crash on the Brady Commission at age 23, and his core advice: own a well-constructed portfolio at your risk target and hold it for life.Thank you to our partnersAugusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: Website: https://dampedspring.com/X: https://x.com/dampedspringSubstack: https://substack.com/@dampedspringTimestamps: 00:00 Introduction and welcome Andy Constan00:50 The four-pillar macro framework: growth, inflation, risk premium, positioning02:42 Where we are: a strong economy and 66 months of above-target inflation05:20 AI and the "pie theory": why there isn't enough GDP for the earnings expectations12:22 The "hamburger theory": who pays for the AI capex boom13:50 The seventh rate spike: will it V-top again?17:43 Why he's getting cautious on stocks18:13 How most people should invest: risk targets and always owning beta21:43 Seeking alpha and his current positioning: short equities, max long bonds24:21 "The 60/40 Strikes Back": why bonds make sense again29:30 Bonds finally get the growth memo31:58 Vulnerable to disappointment, not recession32:52 His read on Kevin Warsh at the Fed36:59 What it would actually take to kill inflation38:45 Why the administration isn't fighting inflation41:37 What's mispriced right now43:35 Historical analogs: 0DTE options, portfolio insurance, and a public-debt-driven cycle48:09 Serving on the Brady Commission after the 1987 crash at age 2353:02 Parting thoughts and where to find AndyThe content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
- 1 weeks ago32 min
#413 Chris Whalen: Bonds, Gold, Energy, & the Coming Food Shock
Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche to break down a turbulent week in markets, as the 30-year Treasury hits its highest yield since 2004 and the 10-year breaks 5%. Chris argues that long rates have structurally reset, driven by Washington's credibility problem and the deficit rather than by the Fed, and he says 7%+ mortgage rates are the new normal as the housing industry heads into consolidation. He makes the case that the world is moving back toward a pre-WWI-style system with gold at its foundation, and explains why he's still long gold and silver despite short-term swings. Drawing on his conversation with John Dizard, Chris explains how damaged Persian Gulf refining capacity is squeezing diesel and sulfur supplies, sending fertilizer prices up eightfold and setting up a food price shock next year. He warns that double-digit inflation is already "baked into the cake," and predicts demand destruction could force the Fed to cut rates by 2027. In viewer questions, Chris covers trimming his Annaly position to buy energy stocks, means-testing Social Security, where housing prices are falling, and the risks private credit poses to life insurance and long-term care policies.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571XUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 – Preview0:28 – Welcome to The Wrap1:06 – 30-year yield hits 2004 high, 10-year breaks 5%2:18 – 7%+ mortgage rates: the new normal3:16 – What higher rates mean for housing and the mortgage industry4:24 – Fed hike and whether Warsh has lost the long end5:48 – Inflated and the University Club talk6:34 – Gold and the return to a pre-WWI monetary system7:40 – Sponsor: Monetary Metals8:55 – Why rising yields haven't broken the gold thesis9:49 – The dollar and a multilateral currency world11:58 – October hike? The refinery capacity crisis14:05 – Diesel, sulfur, and the fertilizer shock15:40 – Double-digit inflation is "baked into the cake"16:36 – The endgame: Iran and the Strait of Hormuz18:22 – Demand destruction and why the Fed may cut21:24 – Viewer Q: Selling Annaly, buying energy23:36 – Viewer Q: Any shorts?24:21 – Viewer Q: An oversight board for Congress and means-testing Social Security27:42 – Why Social Security is invested in Treasuries29:10 – Viewer Q: Will housing prices fall?30:23 – Viewer Q: Private credit and long-term care policies31:25 – Wrap-upThe content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
- 1 weeks ago49 min
#412 Michael Pento: 2027 Will Be a Very Difficult Year – Here's Why
Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), returns to The Julia La Roche Show to warn that the U.S. faces what he calls a "triumvirate of bubbles" in equities, real estate, and credit, all inflated at once for the first time in history. He argues that years of persistent inflation, soaring national debt, foreign creditors stepping back from Treasuries, and the unwinding of the yen carry trade are pushing bond yields higher, and that rising rates will ultimately burst all three bubbles. For the first time since 2021, Pento gives a timeline: he expects 2027 to be a very difficult year as the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh hikes rates and slows balance sheet growth, putting it in direct conflict with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's efforts to hold down long-term yields. Pento explains why he reluctantly uses the word "depression," why the traditional 60/40 portfolio could fail retirees, and why he believes the Fed will eventually return to money printing, triggering a prolonged era of "hyperstagflation." He also shares how he's positioned today, still net long, with short-term Treasuries, dividend payers, and precious metals, while watching credit markets closely because "the clock is ticking."Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: https://pentoport.com/ https://twitter.com/michaelpento0:00 Cold open: "With reluctance, depression"0:19 Welcome back, Michael Pento0:59 The macro picture: 5+ years of inflation crushing consumers4:16 Insolvency, foreign creditors & the yen carry trade unwind8:15 Sponsor: Monetary Metals10:06 The "triumvirate of bubbles": stocks, real estate & credit14:40 Not a perma-bear: 35 years in the business15:18 Pento's first timeline since 2021: why 202720:08 The forgotten middle class & why the pain is necessary21:39 Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals23:12 Warsh vs. Bessent: are the Fed and Treasury at odds?24:43 Who wins? "The free market always wins"25:43 Why he's calling it a depression, not a recession28:26 Retirees beware: the danger of the 60/40 portfolio33:02 Where to hide in "hyperstagflation"34:48 How Pento is positioned right now (still net long)39:19 Is there hope on the other side?42:32 The biggest risk nobody's watching: long-term rates43:33 Record debt, private credit & "this is not normal"46:28 How to follow Michael Pento
- 1 weeks ago40 min
#411 George Noble: Market Is Entering a Dangerous Phase
George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors and former Fidelity fund manager under Peter Lynch, joins Julia in studio as the 10-year Treasury yield breaks 5% and the Fed hikes rates. George says his call is "rotation, not recession." He's passionately bearish on tech and consumer discretionary and wildly bullish on gold and energy, which have been on fire this year. He argues the bond market is driving everything: runaway deficits and the AI capex boom are pushing up the global cost of capital. In his view, today's rates aren't abnormal; the long era of depressed rates was. He gives a pointed critique of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's attempts to suppress yields and explains why the Fed follows the market rather than leading it. He also makes the case that the real bubble is in earnings, not valuations. The conversation covers private credit, the housing correction, $40 trillion in debt, and the money illusion of pricing assets in dollars rather than gold. George explains why he thinks rates and oil keep rising until the market breaks, and why the risk-reward favors gold, energy, and cash over the traditional 60/40 portfolio.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: George Noble's Best Stock Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/X: https://x.com/gnoble79Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenobleTimestamps: 0:00 Intro1:12 Big picture: "weeks where decades happen" as the 10-year breaks 5%2:23 "R is for rotation, not recession"5:18 How high can rates go? Why the ultra-low-rate era was the abnormal one8:28 Why we're in a dangerous phase of the market11:46 Why rotation comes before recession: deficits are force-feeding the economy12:57 Passionately bearish on consumer, wildly bullish on gold and energy13:31 George's critique of Scott Bessent, plus lessons from Soros vs. the Bank of England16:45 "I am the house": Bessent, hubris, and Mr. Market20:18 $40 trillion in debt and "banana republic" behavior21:48 Midterm elections and what a sweep could mean for markets22:20 The ticking clock in private credit and private equity23:17 The Fed's rate hike: Warsh, word salad, and why the Fed follows the market28:07 The real bubble isn't valuations, it's earnings30:25 The housing correction is already happening31:11 Money illusion: the S&P and bonds priced in gold, not "American pesos"35:35 What "the market breaks" actually looks like38:44 How George is positioned: gold, energy, cash, and picking stocks39:17 Closing thoughts
- 2 weeks ago34 min
#410 Chris Whalen: Age of Uncertainty - Falling Home Prices, Cracks in Private Credit, & Sidelined Fed
Chris Whalen returns after the FOMC's 25-basis-point hike and calls it what he wrote in his notes: lame. His argument is that the Fed has become the tail and the Treasury the dog — with a $2 trillion deficit running above 6% of GDP, monetary policy is close to irrelevant, and Kevin Warsh will eventually be forced back into QE and debt monetization whether he wants it or not. That leaves Congress, which Whalen says has stopped doing the one job only it can do, prompting a provocative exchange with Julia about whether a fiscal crisis ends with a manager running the purse the way FDR ran 1933. From there the conversation turns to where the damage shows up: housing, where more than half of American homes fell in price over the past year and Whalen expects a real correction into 2028; private credit and insurance, where he agrees with Jeffrey Gundlach that private credit is the fuse and the insurers are the bomb, and warns annuity holders at the wrong carriers may not be made whole; and energy, where the Houthis' grip on the Red Sea may force the refining industry to redeploy away from the Persian Gulf entirely. He also walks through his own portfolio — Schwab, Flagstar, Annaly, AGNC, and steady additions to gold and silver — explains why he holds no T-bills, and gives his take on the SEC's innovation exemption, calling crypto tokens a polite form of fraud better regulated by state gaming commissions.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 – Welcome back1:03 – "The Fed had to do something or be irrelevant"5:38 – Is the FOMC even relevant anymore?5:57 – Treasury is the dog, the Fed is the tail6:20 – The Fed will be forced to monetize the debt6:48 – A dysfunctional Congress 9:39 – The age of uncertainty10:00 – Half of American homes fell in price this year11:12 – Misery on the Eights: the correction into 202811:24 – Gundlach: private credit is the fuse, insurance is the bomb11:50 – How PE used insurers to compound too fast13:28 – Why annuity holders are calling14:02 – Duration matching and the part of the industry that works15:28 – Energy16:03 – Trump, the war he started, and no leadership17:15 – Echoes of the 1970s — and Europe's winter18:41 – Bank stocks are dead; deposit costs are rising again20:34 – The AI trade 21:28 – Where do you put money with no clear narrative?21:48 – Gold doesn't trade like a stock22:20 – Chris on his own portfolio23:06 – Schwab, Bank of America, and the low-hanging fruit nobody picks24:52 – Crypto: the SEC's innovation exemption after Clarity failed27:03 – Can Congress legislate at all after the midterms?28:18 – Viewer Q: Does flattening change the Annaly call?29:33 – Why Chris owns no T-bills30:26 – What he's watching the rest of the year31:37 – Close
- 2 weeks ago34 min
#409 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Fed Is Hiking Into Recession, Consumers Tapped Out, & Credit Tightening
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and author of Fed Up, joins Julia La Roche to break down the Fed's 25 basis point rate hike under Chair Kevin Warsh. The statement first looked dovish, but markets reversed after Warsh's record-short 29-minute press conference hinted at more hikes. That sent the 10-year Treasury to 5.01%, its highest level since 2007. Danielle argues Warsh has broken his own "zero forward guidance" pledge and is "enamored with his narrative" of a Goldilocks economy. She points to a labor market already in recessionary territory, with long-term unemployed now outnumbering job leavers. She says core PCE inflation is on a steady path lower, while households face mounting strain from gas prices, utility bills, bankruptcies, and tightening credit. The two also discuss the K-shaped economy and why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may not be done acting on the bond market. Danielle explains why peak AI investment, propped up by hyperscaler accounting gains, is the biggest risk she sees. She closes on an optimistic note about the work ethic of today's college-age generation.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Intro0:40 Fed hikes 25 bps: the big-picture takeaway1:22 Markets price in three more hikes after the press conference4:21 Assessing Warsh so far: forward guidance despite his pledge5:37 Fed projections: 2.5% core PCE, 4.1% unemployment7:02 Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals8:26 Labor market already in recessionary territory10:12 Warsh is "enamored with his narrative"10:53 The household squeeze: gas, utilities, beef to chicken11:47 Even the top of the K is losing confidence12:19 AI was 100% of GDP growth, and real AI investment has turned13:20 Payroll data quirks: the World Cup hiring surge14:06 Sponsor: Monetary Metals15:33 Trump's reaction: 10-year at 5.01%, stocks down16:05 Scott Bessent isn't finished17:04 Warsh gives Bessent the Heisman17:41 10-year at a 19-year high, and the Fed was easing last time18:14 What the Fed is getting wrong: August's one-off inflation blips20:03 Core PCE is coming down, plus BEA methodology changes20:56 Bankruptcy lawyers are making bank: record filings22:23 Do rate hikes even work? Cash-out refis and credit tightening23:29 The stock market isn't the economy: airlines and the top of the K25:16 Is Warsh chasing the wrong monkey on his back?25:47 Other worries: PE bankruptcies, rogue AI agents, socialism27:22 Bernanke's 2% target and post-COVID stimulus28:31 The risk keeping her up at night: peak AI investment29:49 Hyperscaler accounting games and the "E" in P/E31:40 What's making her optimistic33:25 Wrap-up
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About The Julia La Roche Show
Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.
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