Episode 149: CritRats vs Bayesians Pt 1 : 4 Kinds of Bayes

Critical Rationalists say Bayesians just make up numbers and call it science. They're not wrong — about most of them.But in this episode, we walk through several startling counterexamples to that very charge. How do we account for those? Doesn't that imply some Bayesians are sometimes getting something very right? Should Critical Rationalists accept the good parts of Bayesianism and reject the bad? And do Critical Rationalists actually solve the problem of "making crap up," or do they just relocate it somewhere else?Bruce argues that the real fight isn't with AI doomers like Yudkowsky — it's with the actual father of Bayesianism, E.T. Jaynes. You're in for a real fight now!Welcome to the heavyweight epistemology match.This is the first episode in a multi-part series.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Support us on Patreon⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠