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Top Traders Unplugged: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think - not just what they trade. Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success. No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators - revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance. If you're building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise - this is your edge. Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience.
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- Today1h 1m
IL51: Why Most Recessions Are Completely Misunderstood ft. Tyler Goodspeed
Why do recessions happen? Tyler Goodspeed joins Kevin Coldiron to challenge some of the most deeply held beliefs in economics. Drawing on more than three centuries of data from the United States and the United Kingdom, he argues that recessions are rarely the inevitable consequence of excess or financial imbalances. Instead, they are often triggered by unexpected external shocks that are difficult to predict. The conversation explores why expansions do not simply die of old age, why recessions fail to cleanse the economy, and what policymakers and investors should focus on instead when preparing for an uncertain future.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Tyler on LinkedIn and Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why recessions are often caused by unexpected shocks00:54 - Tyler Goodspeed's research into four centuries of economic history06:05 - Why economic expansions do not die of old age13:48 - Debunking the boom and bust theory of recessions18:13 - Does monetary policy matter as much as we think21:57 - Financial crises, credit growth and what the data really shows27:11 - Why energy supply shocks have shaped economic history30:58 - Why the UK and US have experienced different recessions35:31 - Government intervention and whether it reduces recessions39:09 - Do recessions actually make economies stronger44:16 - Why the UK never returned to its pre 2008 growth trend47:51 - Financial repression, government debt and the lessons of 200851:32 - Randomness, resilience and preparing for economic shocks56:20 - Rare earths, energy security and the next potential recession triggerCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS:</str
- 4 days ago1h 10m
SI410: The Next Evolution of Trend Following ft. Nick Baltas
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Nick Baltas explore how artificial intelligence, thematic investing and narrative momentum are beginning to reshape systematic investing. Alongside a review of recent CTA performance, they discuss new research on expanding trend following universes, defensive portfolio construction and portable alpha before taking a deep dive into the growing role of AI and thematic risk models. The conversation examines whether future investment signals may come from more than price alone and how systematic investors can combine traditional trend following with new sources of information without losing the discipline that has defined the strategy for decades.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - AI, memories and the changing pace of innovation06:32 - How investment firms are integrating artificial intelligence13:01 - CTA performance and the trend following environment20:34 - Expanding the market universe for trend followers28:17 - Building the perfect hedge with trend following34:25 - Portable alpha and leveraging trend strategies37:44 - Introducing thematic investing and missing factors44:59 - How narratives create momentum in financial markets50:43 - Measuring thematic strength versus price momentum58:41 - Can thematic investing be backtested?01:04:14 - Are narratives really different from traditional sectors?01:07:06 - Final thoughts on AI, research and the future of systematic investingCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general
- 1 weeks ago46 min
OI23: Why Capital Efficiency Is the Next Edge in Investing ft. Charlie McGarraugh
Charlie McGarraugh joins Moritz Seibert to discuss how systematic investing is evolving beyond traditional trend following. Drawing on experience from Goldman Sachs, crypto and machine learning, Charlie explains why adaptive portfolios, capital efficiency and smarter position sizing may become the defining advantages for the next generation of macro investors. They explore the rise of managed futures ETFs, China's growing futures markets, the trade off between diversification and simplicity, and why portfolio construction often matters more than finding the next predictive signal. It is a thoughtful conversation about where systematic investing may be heading next.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Why position sizing may matter more than return prediction01:03 - Charlie McGarra's journey from Goldman Sachs to Altis Partners09:03 - The history of Altis Partners and its evolution beyond trend following11:19 - Building a multi factor macro strategy around trend16:02 - Why adaptive investing is becoming increasingly important21:49 - The growth of managed futures ETFs and reaching new investors25:27 - Designing ETFs for diversification and capital efficiency30:30 - Why Chinese commodity futures offer unique opportunities40:41 - New ideas around leverage and capital efficiency42:37 - Kelly sizing, drawdowns and maximizing long term returnsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com
- 1 weeks ago1h 8m
SI409: Why Trend Following Is Changing Faster Than Ever ft. Yoav Git
Markets are evolving in ways that few investors fully appreciate. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git explore how changing market structure, the rise of retail options trading and new financial products are reshaping trend following. They discuss why short term strategies have become more challenging, whether single stock futures could open new opportunities, and what recent research reveals about narratives, thematic investing and diversification. Along the way they examine commodities, equity markets and the practical realities of systematic investing, offering a thoughtful perspective on how trend followers continue to adapt as markets become increasingly complex.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - England, the World Cup final and new futures market innovations06:30 - Bruno Mars, hedge fund blow up risk and AI investment concerns12:40 - July trend following performance and market positioning18:31 - Front month futures, commodity curves and trend following signals25:03 - CFM's Seven Degrees of Market Structure36:49 - Why single stock futures and options are changing equity markets39:56 - The decline of short term trend following explained47:50 - Thematic investing and where equity risk really comes from55:06 - Narrative momentum and how news drives market behaviour01:02:45 - Building a diversified equity trend strategy01:05:04 - Final thoughts on the future of systematic investingCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following
- 2 weeks ago1h 15m
GM105: The Billion-Barrel Shock Has Not Arrived Yet ft. Adam Rozencwajg
More than a billion barrels of expected oil supply have been removed from the market. Yet prices suggest the danger has passed. Adam Rozencwajg joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explain why that conclusion may be dangerously premature. The missing barrels have not disappeared from the equation. Their impact is still moving through tankers, refineries and inventories, hidden by reporting delays and China’s strategic response. From the limits of petroleum reserves to falling stockpiles, gold’s correction and the energy required to power AI, this episode examines a market caught between what prices are saying and what the physical system may soon reveal.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why commodity super cycles are driven by capital investment, not geopolitics09:30 - The impact of Middle East supply disruptions on global oil markets15:38 - Oil inventories, strategic reserves and why the data may be misleading21:57 - China's energy strategy and its growing influence on global markets31:23 - Why energy markets have not reacted as many investors expected37:13 - China's long term energy transition and global demand implications43:59 - Why oil prices have fallen despite tightening fundamentals48:12 - The outlook for oil markets over the coming months58:25 - Gold, investor positioning and what could trigger the next rally01:02:59 - Strategic government investment and the future of critical commodities01:09:22 - Why energy remains the biggest opportunity in the AI boom01:11:53 - Final thoughts on where commodity markets go from hereCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more t
- 2 weeks ago1h 3m
SI408: Has Trend Following Changed Forever? ft. Alan Dunne
Markets continue to evolve, and so do the strategies designed to navigate them. Alan Dunne joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explore why changes in market structure may have permanently altered short term trend following, and what that means for systematic investors. They discuss a fascinating new research paper on market microstructure, the changing role of liquidity, the rise of high frequency trading and why faster no longer necessarily means better. Along the way they examine the Federal Reserve's evolving communication strategy, the outlook for commodities, and why regime change continues to create both risks and opportunities for trend followers.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Summer reading, Jeremy Grantham and lessons from early quantitative investing 05:22 - Shrinking retail products, smaller futures contracts and the rise of retail trading12:18 - First half performance review for CTAs and trend followers15:36 - Commodity markets, Middle East tensions and the AI driven demand story20:09 - Kevin Warsh, Fed communication and a new era for monetary policy30:34 - Why regime change strengthens the case for trend following38:34 - The research behind the decline of short term trend following46:44 - Tick size, liquidity and what changed in market microstructure49:43 - Alternative explanations for why fast trend has struggled55:35 - Execution, market participants and the future of systematic trading01:00:45 - Final thoughts on the next evolution of trend followingCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for tren
- 3 weeks ago55 min
GM104: How the Dollar Quietly Took Over the World ft. Brendan Greeley
The US dollar has become so familiar that most investors rarely stop to ask how it became the world's dominant currency or why that dominance has endured. Brendan Greeley joins Alan Dunne to trace the dollar's remarkable journey from a silver coin in sixteenth century Europe to the foundation of modern global finance. Along the way they explore the hidden mechanics of money creation, the evolution of offshore dollars, the Federal Reserve's expanding role, and why the institutions supporting the dollar may matter far more than politics. It is a conversation that challenges many of the assumptions investors hold about money, banking and monetary policy.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Follow Brendan on X.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why the Fed's balance sheet deserves far more scrutiny00:57 - Brendan Greeley's journey from journalism to monetary history06:36 - How studying financial history changed his view of economics11:38 - The hidden difference between big money and small money17:43 - How the dollar existed before the United States26:40 - Why the dollar became the world's reserve currency29:36 - The birth of the Eurodollar market and offshore money creation34:53 - What really supports the dollar's global dominance40:09 - Could global finance split into competing currency blocs44:21 - Has the Federal Reserve become too powerful50:01 - Why QE, the Fed's balance sheet and future reforms matter52:53 - Brendan Greeley's essential book recommendationCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score e
- 3 weeks ago1h 1m
SI407: Why America Is Rewriting the Rules of Capitalism ft. Cem Karsan
Markets may be entering one of the most important regime shifts in decades. Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to argue that the United States is moving away from traditional free market capitalism towards a far more strategic model where government, markets and technology become increasingly intertwined. They discuss why positioning continues to dominate market behaviour, the growing role of sovereign investment, the future of AI driven capital spending, and why the next major turning point may arrive after the US midterm elections. It is a conversation that challenges conventional market thinking and explores how politics, policy and capital are becoming inseparable.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - America at 250 and why major turning points often arrive after two and a half centuries03:43 - Why positioning matters more than headlines in today's markets07:53 - Soft US jobs data and the disconnect between markets and the economy09:15 - June performance review for trend followers and CTAs15:14 - Why America may be adopting a more strategic form of capitalism19:14 - The case for a US sovereign wealth fund and reshaping the financial system30:31 - Why the US dollar remains America's greatest strategic advantage37:52 - AI investment, capital spending and why this cycle may be different45:46 - Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent and the changing relationship between the Fed and Treasury50:03 - The Summer of George and why market positioning dominates the summer months52:22 - Why the US midterm elections could become the next major market catalyst57:59 - Looking ahead to the second half of 2026Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Tr
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About Top Traders Unplugged
Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think - not just what they trade. Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success. No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators - revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance. If you're building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise - this is your edge. Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience.
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