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by Client Strategy Office
UBS On-Air: Market Moves brings you beyond the highs and lows of the ticker, with conversations that can broaden your thinking about market behavior
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Shane drops by to recap this week’s primary election outcomes, and shares thoughts on potential outcome scenarios for the November mid-term elections. Plus, a review of Congressional legislative priorities over the next few months, and an update on where negotiations stand to end the US-Iran war. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Andrew Dubinsky, Senior US Economist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by on this jobs Friday to reflect on the May employment report and the overall health of the US labor market. Plus, a preview of next week’s May inflation data, and thoughts on what the inflationary environment could look like in the second half of the year. Host: Daniel Cassidy
The US employment report adds a rather unreliable narrative to the US labor market data. Expectations are for a dull report, with an unchanged unemployment rate and a sub-100,000 non-farm payrolls number. However, the range of estimates is particularly scattered. When job creation is this weak, the composition of the workforce may distort the average hourly earnings data without saying anything about wage growth.
Europe is often associated with weaker growth, energy shocks, and geopolitical pressure. But beneath the surface, some of the region’s leading companies are telling a very different story - one of resilience, adaptation, and innovation. In this episode of Across the Pond, hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters are joined by Rolf Ganter, Head of European Equities, to discuss what is driving the rebound in European corporate profits, why investors may be underestimating the strength of European companies, and which areas may offer opportunities from here.
The Federal Reserve Beige Book’s summary of economic anecdote mentioned “uncertain” and “uncertainty” no fewer than 50 times this month (before tariffs were announced). That is below the uncertainty peak that followed last year’s tariffs, but well above the 14 mentions in May 2024. Uncertainty has a paralyzing effect on business decisions—and the risk is that uncertainty endures.
US President Trump is proposing new tariffs—an additional 10% for US consumers of goods from most major economies. Someone in the administration seems to be aware that tariffing high frequency purchases aggravates inflation perceptions and the affordability crisis, and some key food items are exempted.
On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on recent market performance and the momentum of equities, along with the impact of inflation concerns to bond market activity. Plus, some observations and takeaways from the UBS Global Family Office report.
Another day, another round of Gulf war stories—the latest originated from semi-official Iranian sources, so markets took them more seriously. Iran’s apparent suspension of negotiations with the US prompted US President Trump to attempt a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Market opinions differ as to the terms and effectiveness of this.
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