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by Client Strategy Office
UBS On-Air: Market Moves brings you beyond the highs and lows of the ticker, with conversations that can broaden your thinking about market behavior
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Housing affordability is under pressure across many major cities. Yet the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026 shows that housing markets are following increasingly different paths as accumulated financial wealth supports demand in prime residential segments. Is wealth overtaking income as a driver of demand? And how is that reshaping housing risk? In this episode of Across the Pond, host Belinda Ulander speaks with the index’s co-authors, Matthias Holzhey and Maciej Skoczek, about Zurich’s position at the top of the ranking, diverging trends across Europe, and the importance of selectivity for investors.
The US employment report has a wide range of estimates around the payrolls data. This is not surprising—labor market data precision is challenged by low response rates and structural changes in the way people work. The general expectation is for an OK report with stable unemployment.
Xingchen Yu, Senior Investment Strategist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, shares reflections from his latest trip to China, where AI ambition and seamless digital convenience coexist with cautious consumers, fierce competition, and lingering property pressures. Through stories from the ground, he explores an economy moving at two speeds, and what the latest Trump-Xi summit means for a relationship defined by both engagement and strategic competition. Reference Xingchen’s recent blog: Reflections on my latest trip to China, two years on. Host: Daniel Cassidy
The important point from yesterday’s US data was not the larger-than-expected downward pressures on reported inflation—these are technical changes that US consumers do not experience in their daily struggles with the affordability crisis. The important point was savings. Lowering savings rates are how US consumers keep spending. The savings rate level was revised higher. This suggests savings can pay for tariffs and oil prices for longer.
UK second quarter GDP was revised stronger, as new methods reveal how much new economic activity has been missed from the data. Rising real disposable incomes encouraged a rise in the UK household savings rate. If the Gulf war does not, in fact, turn into a forever war and oil prices come down, the impact on real disposable incomes should be positive; but that would probably then be used to rebuild savings rates rather than accelerate spending.
The rise in treasury yields continues to be top of mind for investors - Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, explains why they’re rising. We also touch on an outlook for oil prices, new developments in agentic AI, and what it all means for your portfolio. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Bond yields and oil prices continue their close relationship. Central banks are supposed to look through an oil price shock as being beyond their control. However, if central banks seemingly care about oil, the only policy remedy is to weaken the non-oil economy, as something they can control. In that case, higher oil prices make it more likely interest rates will have to rise to recession-inducing levels. We are not at that stage, but there are enough oil price comments to have markets contemplating more repressive monetary policies.
Following what was a busy week in both New York and Washington DC, Shane drops by to share some takeaways and reflections on the UN General Assembly, along with the three-day summit involving President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China. Plus, a look at legislative priorities of the US Senate ahead of the midterm elections. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Government Affairs Advisor, Government Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy
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