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Alpha Exchange: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Dean Curnutt
The Alpha Exchange is a podcast series launched by Dean Curnutt to explore topics in financial markets, risk management and capital allocation in the alternatives industry. Our in depth discussions with highly established industry professionals seek to uncover the nuanced and complex interactions between economic, monetary, financial, regulatory and geopolitical sources of risk. We aim to learn from the perspective our guests can bring with respect to the history of financial and business cycles, promoting a better understanding among listeners as to how prior periods provide important context to present day dynamics. The “price of risk” is an important topic. Here we engage experts in their assessment of risk premium levels in the context of uncertainty. Is the level of compensation attractive? Because Central Banks have played so important a role in markets post crisis, our discussions sometimes aim to better understand the evolution of monetary policy and the degree to which the rea
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- 3 days ago59 min
Ronnie Wexler, Global Head of Equities Distribution, Barclays
It was a pleasure to host a discussion with Ronnie Wexler, Global Head of Equities Distribution at Barclays, and solicit his insights on change – in markets, in client relationships and in the growing role of technology across the financial ecosystem. We begin with Ronnie’s early years at Goldman Sachs during the final stages of the technology bubble and the sharp market reversal that followed. He reflects on how periods of market stress, from the post-dot-com bear market to the GFC, have shaped his perspective on risk and the importance of being adaptable in markets that are constantly moving. The conversation then turns to the changing structure of institutional investing. Ronnie discusses the growth of hedge funds in pursuit of industrial-scale alpha generation, highlighting how client needs have become increasingly cross-asset, and solutions-oriented. He explains how a sell-side equities business today functions as an integrated ecosystem that spans prime brokerage, derivatives, electronic trading, and financing. A major theme throughout the discussion is the accelerating pace of technological change. Ronnie describes recent experiences using AI development tools and outlines how firms are integrating them into workflows ranging from onboarding and automation to research distribution and client analytics. We also explore the rise of bespoke and OTC solutions, including quantitative investment strategies, custom baskets, and exotic option structures. Here Ronnie emphasizes that these products reflect broader changes in market structure, positioning, and risk transfer across institutional portfolios. The conversation concludes with thoughts on recruiting, apprenticeship culture, and the need for firms to balance human judgment with increasingly sophisticated technological infrastructure.
- 3 weeks ago1h 1m
Robert Flatley, Founder & CEO TS Imagine
I was excited to host this conversation with Rob Flatley, Founder and CEO of TS Imagine, on prediction markets, AI-driven workflows, and the structural changes reshaping financial market infrastructure. We begin with Rob’s path from software engineering into capital markets, including leadership roles at Bank of America and Deutsche Bank during the rise of electronic trading and through the Global Financial Crisis. That experience informs a broader perspective on how market infrastructure evolves during periods of stress and technological transition. The conversation then turns to artificial intelligence and the distinction between large language models and reinforcement learning systems. Rob explains why traditional deterministic workflows in settlement and collateral management create different challenges than probabilistic systems such as risk management. He argues that the next phase of AI adoption will focus less on generating language and more on learning and automating complex workflows across financial systems. We also explore prediction markets, an area where Rob and his team have spent significant time building infrastructure and risk frameworks. He discusses how markets tied to elections, Fed policy, GDP, inflation, and geopolitical outcomes are beginning to move from retail experimentation toward institutional relevance. We also discuss tokenization and settlement infrastructure. Rob outlines how stablecoins, digital ledgers, and atomic settlement could reshape financing, custody, collateral mobility, and the economics of intermediated finance. We discuss the implications for prime brokerage, repo, clearinghouses, and 24-hour trading environments. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Rob Flatley.
- Apr 28, 202659 min
Hari Krishnan, Head of Volatility Strategies at SCT Capital Management
It was a pleasure to host a conversation with Hari Krishnan, Head of Volatility Strategies at SCT Capital, on the changing nature of volatility markets, portfolio hedging, and why commodities may offer increasingly valuable diversification in today’s environment. Hari reflects on his book Second Leg Down, which explores practical approaches to tail-risk hedging and the cyclical nature of volatility. He discusses how investors often ignore protection in calm periods, only to rush toward hedges after markets have already repriced risk. That dynamic leads to a broader conversation on planning, budgeting, and approaching hedging as an ongoing portfolio discipline rather than a reactive decision. We then turn to option markets more broadly, including volatility risk premium, skew, and the challenge of protecting against fat-tailed outcomes. Hari explains why moderately out-of-the-money options often embed persistent premium, while deeper tail risks can be difficult to price with confidence. The conversation then shifts to commodities, where Hari sees a differentiated opportunity set. We discuss how producer hedging, end-user demand, and forward-curve dynamics create a very different volatility ecosystem than that in equities. He outlines a strategy focused on gaining long exposure to select commodities while using options structures to reduce carry costs and preserve upside convexity. We close with a discussion on cross-asset dislocations, the recent divergence between oil, gold, and equities, the role of commodities in a world where bonds may be less defensive, and how AI tools are accelerating research, customization, and hypothesis testing across markets. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Hari Krishnan.
- Apr 13, 202651 min
Robert Kaplan, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs, and former President of the Dallas Fed
It was a pleasure to welcome Rob Kaplan, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs, and former President of the Dallas Fed, to the Alpha Exchange. We begin with Rob’s reflections on his time at the helm of the Dallas Fed from 2015 to 2021, a period spanning rate liftoff, fiscal stimulus, and the COVID crisis. He outlines how his perspective as a business practitioner led him to focus on structural forces—demographics, globalization, and technology—rather than relying solely on cyclical data and economic models. We then turn to the current environment, where the Fed faces a more complex trade-off between inflation and employment. Rob highlights the limits of monetary policy, emphasizing that broader economic outcomes are increasingly shaped by fiscal policy, regulation, and structural trends beyond the Fed’s control. The conversation also explores changes in financial markets, including the diminished influence of Fed policy on the long end of the yield curve, the growing importance of supply and demand for Treasuries, and the implications of a more leveraged global economy. We close with a discussion on regulation, private credit, and the impact of geopolitical shocks, as well as how AI-driven disruption is influencing corporate behavior and risk management across industries. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Rob Kaplan.
- Apr 7, 202652 min
Wayne Dahl, Co-Portfolio Manager, Oaktree Capital Management
It was a pleasure to welcome Wayne Dahl, Co-Portfolio Manager of Global Credit Strategy at Oaktree Capital Management, to the Alpa Exchange. We begin with Wayne’s path through convertible arbitrage, structured credit, and multi-asset investing, and how that foundation informs a framework centered on understanding sensitivities across rates, credit, and equity exposures. Convertible arbitrage, in particular, serves as an entry point into managing multiple dimensions of risk simultaneously, reinforcing a core principle: avoiding large losses is essential to long-term compounding. We explore Oaktree’s consistent investment philosophy—one that prioritizes credit fundamentals over macro forecasting and emphasizes patience in periods of compressed risk premiums. Wayne reflects on environments like 2021, where low yields and tight spreads challenge investors to remain disciplined, and contrasts that with the more attractive all-in yields that have emerged following the shift in rates since 2022. The conversation next considers today’s landscape. Here, Wayne walks through how the firm is positioning across liquid credit markets, highlighting areas such as residential mortgage-backed securities and shorter-duration, high-income instruments as ways to balance yield with risk control. We close with a discussion on AI-driven dispersion, energy-driven uncertainty, and the importance of portfolio construction across geographies, sectors, and structures in navigating an increasingly complex environment. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Wayne Dahl.
- Apr 2, 20261h 2m
Alpha Exchange 250th Episode: A Retrospective
Welcome to Episode 250 of the Alpha Exchange. To celebrate the milestone, I asked my dear friend, Jon Kalikow, to host the conversation, switching seats and having me as the guest. I launched the podcast in 2018 with a simple idea: to create space for long-form conversations that explore how market practitioners think about risk. Rather than focusing on predictions, the goal has always been to understand frameworks—how investors process information, respond to uncertainty, evolve through cycles. In this episode, we also explore some of my own thinking on risk. Here, I outline a simple framework built around four categories: economic, monetary, financial, and geopolitical. While distinct, these risks are deeply interconnected and understanding how they interact is critical in assessing market outcomes. Today’s market dynamics are fascinating in this context. We close the discussion with a look ahead—toward expanding the Alpha Exchange platform through live events, educational initiatives, and continued conversations that emphasize intellectual honesty, humility, and the ongoing exchange of ideas. I feel as convicted as ever about the business model which aims to create value through engagement. I hope you enjoy this episode and appreciate your ongoing support of the Alpha Exchange.
- Mar 31, 202651 min
The Shock Heard ‘Round the World: US Government Bonds
The “risk-free” rate figures prominently in how we’ve all been taught the foundations of finance. To price a security, start with the asset that is the safest and soundest and then add compensation for bearing uncertainty. It has always been self-evident that the global risk-free benchmark was the Treasury market. Deep, liquid and viewed as default free, US government bonds have been the recipient of capital during times of stress. And the reason is that the US has long been viewed as not just the world’s strongest economy but also a stabilizing force in global affairs. In this discussion, and with the help of four recent expert guests on the Alpha exchange, I argue that this is changing and the US is now becoming a chief source of risk. In the process, the Treasury market may be losing one its most important characteristics: the insurance feature. That is, its capacity to be durable to and even benefit from market shocks. We’ve all got to be asking, “how can US government bonds be a shock absorber when the US government is the source of the shock?” The implications for asset prices that result from a less stable US are significant and there are important questions to consider. I hope you find this discussion useful.
- Mar 13, 202652 min
Kris Abdelmessih, Co-Founder, Moontower.ai
Kris Abdelmessih, author of the MoonTower Substack and founder of the options analytics firm MoonTower.ai., has spent years thinking about option pricing, volatility regimes, and the mental math traders use to translate volatility into price. In this context, it was great to welcome him back to the Alpha Exchange to explore his thought process. We begin with developments in commodity markets, particularly crude oil, and silver, where geopolitical tension and speculative flows have led to sharp changes in volatility surfaces. Kris explains how option skew in underlyings like oil can reprice rapidly during shock events, leading to inverted termstructure and a well bid call skew. These dynamics create unusual behavior in vertical spreads and probabilities implied by option prices. Kris describes how the relationship between spot moves and volatility changes across market environments, emphasizing that traders must continually recalibrate their models. What appears to be a stable relationship—such as the familiar beta between the S&P 500 and the VIX—can shift quickly depending on positioning and market structure. Finally, we discuss the work Kris is doing on financial education. Inspired by teaching his own children about investing and compounding, he has begun running small classes for students and sharing the materials publicly. The goal is simple: introduce younger investors to concepts like time value of money and long-term compounding earlier in life. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Kris Abdelmissih.
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About Alpha Exchange
The Alpha Exchange is a podcast series launched by Dean Curnutt to explore topics in financial markets, risk management and capital allocation in the alternatives industry. Our in depth discussions with highly established industry professionals seek to uncover the nuanced and complex interactions between economic, monetary, financial, regulatory and geopolitical sources of risk. We aim to learn from the perspective our guests can bring with respect to the history of financial and business cycles, promoting a better understanding among listeners as to how prior periods provide important context to present day dynamics. The “price of risk” is an important topic. Here we engage experts in their assessment of risk premium levels in the context of uncertainty. Is the level of compensation attractive? Because Central Banks have played so important a role in markets post crisis, our discussions sometimes aim to better understand the evolution of monetary policy and the degree to which the rea
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