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by Excess Returns
Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more.
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- Yesterday1h 1m
Tech Spending Has a Cash Problem | Jim Paulsen on the Two Signals That Could Trigger a Correction
Jim Paulsen returns to Excess Returns to discuss why he is increasingly concerned about a meaningful stock market pullback, even though he does not expect a bear market. We cover the extreme divide between AI-driven “new era” stocks and the rest of the market, what oil and inflation could mean for the Fed, why tech earnings and market leadership have become so concentrated, and what investors should watch as the economy potentially shifts from inflation fears to growth fears.Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on SpotifySubscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple PodcastsJim Paulsen on Xhttps://x.com/jimwpaulsenPaulsen Perspectiveshttps://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/Topics CoveredWhy Jim thinks the economy could weaken into the summer and fallThe risk of a sharp stock market pullback without a full bear marketHow inflation, oil prices and geopolitical conflict are affecting the marketWhy the Fed may face a difficult decision under Kevin WarshThe extreme divide between new era tech stocks and old era stocksWhy AI and innovation need to benefit the broader economy to be sustainableHow tech earnings have become concentrated in only two S&P 500 sectorsWhy small-cap tech and unprofitable tech leadership may be a warning signWhat past oil price peaks suggest about stock market correctionsWhy investor focus may shift from inflation risk to growth riskHow this bull market has been driven by a series of booms in Mag 7, Bitcoin, gold, oil and AITimestamps00:00 Why AI has to benefit more than the tech sector05:18 Inflation, oil prices and the impact of geopolitical conflict10:54 New era stocks versus old era stocks15:43 Corporate cash, AI spending and pressure on tech investment20:17 Policy tightening and why economic momentum may slow25:31 Why AI must spread beyond the companies building it31:42 Why this tech boom is different from the 1990s36:51 Why market breadth keeps fading back into large-cap growth42:06 Small-cap tech and unprofitable tech start leading46:15 Why the damage from oil shocks often comes after oil peaks50:15 How the market could shift from inflation fear to growth fear54:40 The bull market of booms in Mag 7, Bitcoin, gold, oil and AI59:46 Jim’s main takeaway for investors nowFollow the Excess Returns podcasts:https://excessreturnspod.com/Contact us:excessreturnspod@gmail.com/No information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of the firms of the hosts or their clients.
- 3 days ago1h 3m
He Quantified 200 Years of Disruption | Kai Wu on Separating Software Survivors from Value Traps
Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to break down his latest research on AI disruption, software stocks, value traps, and intangible moats. We discuss why software valuations have collapsed, why traditional value investing can fail during technological disruption, and how investors can separate potential AI winners from companies whose business models may be permanently impaired.AI Disruption: Moats and Value Trapshttps://www.sparklinecapital.com/post/ai-disruptionKai Wu on Xhttps://x.com/ckaiwuSparkline Capitalhttps://www.sparklinecapital.com/Topics Covered:Why software stocks are trading at a historically unusual discount to the marketHow AI disruption can create both real opportunities and dangerous value trapsWhy Blockbuster, Borders, RadioShack and newspapers offer lessons for today’s software selloffHow patent data and natural language processing can measure technological disruptionWhy disruption has helped explain the poor performance of traditional value investingWhy value investing may still work in sectors insulated from technological changeHow intangible assets like brand, human capital, intellectual property and network effects can protect companiesWhy Walmart and The New York Times survived disruption while other incumbents did notHow David Teece’s complementary assets framework applies to AI, software and moatsWhy AI adoption and intangible value together may help identify software survivorsWhy high dispersion in disruption-scare stocks creates a potential opportunity for stock pickersTimestamps:00:00 Software stocks now trade at a historic discount04:26 What makes a cheap stock a value trap08:25 Measuring disruption using patents, filings and natural language processing13:23 Is AI the biggest disruptive wave in history?14:55 Why disruption keeps stacking on retailers17:10 How technological change disrupted traditional value investing21:20 Why value investors need to know when not to apply old metrics25:06 Why more of the market is exposed to innovation than ever before27:07 What Walmart and The New York Times teach about surviving disruption32:40 The four intangible moats that can protect companies35:02 Why intangible value works better in disrupted industries38:50 Apple, Amazon, Macy’s and the difference between disruptors and value traps42:58 Applying intangible value to beaten-down software stocks47:05 Why AI adoption alone is not enough48:23 How AI could improve margins for surviving software companies50:09 Which industries are adopting AI fastest52:14 The software sweet spot: AI adoption plus intangible moats53:53 Why disruption-scare stocks have extreme return dispersion57:40 What happens when intangible value is applied to high-disruption stocks01:01:42 Why “code is not the moat” for many software companies
- 6 days ago1h 8m
The Three Cracks in the AI Trade | Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Aahan Menon on What Could Derail the Market's Biggest Bet
In this episode of Last Call, we break down one of the most confusing market backdrops in years: AI-driven earnings optimism, rising oil and inflation risk, stretched options positioning, and the market impact of a potential SpaceX IPO. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler are joined by Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt, and Brent Kochuba to examine what macro data, political narratives, options flows, and index mechanics are saying about where markets could go next.Follow Last Call on SpotifyFollow Last Call on Apple PodcastsTopics Covered:Why markets are looking through war, oil shocks and valuation concernsHow earnings estimates are driving sector performance in the AI tradeAahan Menon on growth, inflation, oil prices and macro regime signalsWhy demand destruction from higher energy prices can take longer than investors expectWhat a rising growth and rising inflation regime can mean for stocks, commodities and bondsBen Hunt on World War AI and the collision between AI market optimism and political backlashWhy opposition to AI data centers could become a major market and election issueBrent Kochuba on call buying, implied volatility and signs of options market frothWhy CORE 1M and skew signals may be warning of a downside spasmHow the SpaceX IPO could affect index flows, active managers and mega-cap stocksTimestamps:00:00 Intro: AI, inflation and options risk in one market05:40 Earnings estimates, AI optimism and why fundamentals still matter10:31 Aahan Menon on a difficult macro backdrop15:29 Why energy shocks and demand destruction take time20:24 Why inflation can persist even if the oil shock eases24:47 Ben Hunt on World War AI and the AI resource build-out30:00 AI CapEx as the pillar holding up market optimism34:00 The political backlash against AI data centers38:00 Why data center opposition matters for markets42:09 Why price action can distort the AI narrative47:48 CORE 1M, stretched call prices and downside spasm risk52:00 Why Nasdaq options are priced for upside crashes56:11 Index rules, human judgment and the SpaceX IPO01:00:34 The free float problem and rebalancing pressure01:05:22 Space data centers, valuation and the size of the AI opportunity
- 1 weeks ago49 min
Cheap Is a Warning, Not a Thesis | Adam Parker on What This Market Is Really Pricing
Adam Parker returns to Excess Returns to explain why the market may be trading more on future fundamentals than investors think, how AI is reshaping stock selection, and why traditional valuation signals may be less useful than they once were.We discuss AI revenue exposure, software vs. semiconductors, Mag Seven positioning, gross margins, estimate achievability, spinoffs, and Adam’s highest-conviction contrarian sector idea.Adam Parker on Xhttps://x.com/Adam_Parker_TriTrivariate Researchhttps://trivariateresearch.com/Trivector Researchhttps://www.trivectorresearch.comTopics covered:Why “sell in May” and other calendar-based market rules often lack statistical supportWhy Adam thinks the stock market leads the economy, not the other way aroundHow to think about whether today’s AI market is a bubbleWhy the market may be trading on 2030 or 2031 fundamentalsWhen investors may start demanding returns on AI capital spendingWhy AI could create new jobs rather than simply destroy existing onesHow large AI-related IPOs like SpaceX could affect index mechanics and portfolio flowsWhy gross margin expansion is one of Adam’s most important stock selection factorsWhy Adam remains cautious on software and prefers semiconductors over softwareHow valuation, quality, and other traditional factors may have changed since COVIDWhy estimate achievability and incremental margins matter more than simple beats and missesHow to think about the Mag Seven, Nvidia, and market concentrationWhy spinoffs may become more important in an AI-driven marketWhy healthcare is Adam’s highest-conviction contrarian sector ideaTimestamps:00:00 Why the market may be trading on future fundamentals04:37 Is today’s stock market an AI bubble?08:45 When AI capex needs to show real returns13:00 How trillion-dollar IPOs could reshape index mechanics19:00 Why gross margin expansion is such a powerful factor23:00 Why software companies face AI-driven margin pressure27:21 Where AI semiconductor exposure goes next31:54 Why valuation does not work for stock picking35:03 What has changed in markets since COVID39:22 Estimate achievability and incremental margins43:06 How to think about the Mag Seven and Nvidia47:55 Why healthcare could be the biggest AI opportunity
- 1 weeks ago1h 6m
He Built the Fund He'd Hold 30 Years | Eric Crittenden on What Investors Pick When Labels Come Off
Eric Crittenden joins Matt Zeigler and Jason Buck for a deep dive into trend following and managed futures.They discuss why systematic macro trend investing works, how risk transfer creates a return premium, and how trend can fit inside a diversified all-weather portfolio.Standpoint Fundshttps://www.standpointfunds.com/Topics covered:Why trend following can struggle during fast reversals and thrive after regime shiftsHow systematic investors manage whipsaws, drawdowns, and emotional pressureThe trade-offs between short-term, medium-term, and long-term trend signalsWhy Eric prefers simple, durable systems over complex models and constant tinkeringWhen it makes sense to remove a futures market from a systematic portfolioWhy trend following may earn a risk transfer premium from hedgers and commercial usersHow copper producers, options markets, and insurance help explain trend following returnsWhy rising interest rates and short bond positions can benefit managed futuresHow trend following can pair with global equities in an all-weather portfolioWhy smoothing a trend strategy can reduce its value when investors need convexity mostThe behavioral challenge of holding diversifiers that look wrong at the wrong timeWhy investors and advisors often want alternatives but struggle to stick with themTimestamps:00:00 Why trend following opportunities appear under pressure04:39 Pro-growth positioning before the whipsaw09:32 Short-term vs long-term trend signals13:46 The danger of tinkering with systematic strategies18:43 What actually changes in a durable process23:27 Rising rates, short bonds, and collateral yield28:00 Copper hedging and why trend followers buy rising prices32:00 Options, insurance, and risk transfer through time36:28 Regime shifts and supply-demand imbalances41:00 What investors choose when asset classes are anonymized45:11 Building a portfolio for 30-year terminal wealth50:06 Why portfolio construction is different than judging individual strategies56:15 Why trend following and value investing require faith01:00:42 Reducing errors vs chasing highlight-reel winners01:05:36 Where to follow Eric and Standpoint
- 1 weeks ago1h 18m
Cliff Asness on Bubbles, Private Equity and His Resesarch Greatest Hits
Cliff Asness returns to Excess Returns for a greatest hits tour through some of his most important and entertaining investing ideas.We discuss bubble logic, today’s AI market comparisons, why volatility still matters as a risk measure, private equity “volatility laundering,” international diversification, market timing myths, pulling the goalie, and how machine learning is changing quantitative investing.Cliff Asness on Xhttps://x.com/CliffordAsnessAQR Capital Managementhttps://www.aqr.com/Papers DiscussedBubble Logic: Or, How to Learn to Stop Worrying and Love the Bullhttps://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Working-Paper/Bubble-Logic-Or-How-to-Learn-to-Stop-Worrying-and-Love-the-BullRubble Logic: What Did We Learn From the Great Stock Market Bubble?https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/Rubble-LogicMy Top 10 Peeveshttps://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/Journal-Article/My-Top-10-Peeves.pdfVolatility Launderinghttps://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/Volatility-LaunderingI Did Not Predict What Is Going on in Privateshttps://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/I-Did-Not-Predict-What-is-Going-on-in-Privates(So) What If You Miss the Market's N Best Days?https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/So-What-If-You-Miss-the-Markets-N-Best-DaysInternational Diversification Works (Eventually)https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/International-Diversification-Works-EventuallyInternational Diversification - Still Not Crazy after All These Yearshttps://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/International-Diversification-Still-Not-Crazy-after-All-These-YearsPerhaps the Most Important Essay I Will Ever Co Authorhttps://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/Perhaps-the-Most-Important-Essay-I-Will-Ever-Co-AuthorMain topics covered:How the dot-com bubble created its own internal logicWhy Dow 36,000 and Cisco message boards captured bubble thinkingWhat investors learned, and failed to learn, from the tech bubbleHow today’s AI market compares with the dot-com eraWhy long periods of underperformance make even good strategies hard to stick withWhy Cliff still defends volatility as a useful risk measureWhy “cash on the sidelines” is a misleading market narrativeHow private equity smoothing can make risk look lower than it really isWhy the private markets debate is not a short-term predictionWhy the “missing the best 10 days” argument against market timing is incompleteWhy international diversification can still matter after decades of US outperformanceWhat pulling the goalie can teach investors about risk, incentives and career riskHow machine learning changes quant investing without eliminating economic intuitionTimestamps:00:00 Why certainty is dangerous in investing04:58 Why Bubble Logic never became a book10:18 Cisco, Yahoo message boards and bubble psychology14:16 Rubble Logic and the lessons investors failed to learn18:04 What today’s AI market has in common with the dot-com bubble22:23 Why the long run can lie to investors26:02 Volatility, permane
- 2 weeks ago57 min
He Studied Every Bear Market Since 1929 | Ben Carlson on How the Worst Starting Point Still Made 8%
Ben Carlson joins Excess Returns to discuss his new book Risk and Reward and the biggest lessons investors can learn from market history. We cover how to think about risk, inflation, market timing, bear markets, lost decades, diversification, compounding and why surviving volatility is the key to building long-term wealth.Ben's Bookhttps://amzn.to/4dFHsQzBen Carlson on Xhttps://x.com/awealthofcsBen's Bloghttps://awealthofcommonsense.com/Main topics covered:Why risk is hard to define and always involves trade-offsHow vivid risks like sharks and headlines distort investor decision-makingWhy doing nothing can be one of the hardest parts of investingHow inflation should be viewed through personal finance, human capital and long-term investingWhy stocks can be an inflation hedge even if they struggle during inflation spikesWhy waiting for the market coast to clear often failsWhat the world’s worst market timer teaches about saving and staying investedHow loss aversion shapes investor behaviorWhat the Great Depression, bear markets and 30-year returns teach about long-term investingWhy there is no perfect portfolio and the best strategy is one you can actually stick withTimestamps:00:00 Ben Carlson on why risk and reward are attached06:35 Doing nothing, action bias and better investing behavior11:51 Inflation psychology and lessons from the 1970s16:55 Why stocks can hedge inflation over the long run21:07 Why waiting for the coast to clear is a market timing trap26:30 Time horizons, loss aversion and portfolio behavior31:49 Government rescue, left-tail risk and unintended consequences35:54 Recessionary vs non-recessionary bear markets42:09 Why the stock market and economy can diverge47:24 Why compounding is about holding, not trading51:37 Starting valuations, lost decades and future returns55:40 Risk, reward and the biggest lesson for investors
- 2 weeks ago53 min
Is AI Still in 1995? Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on the Next Phase of the AI Boom
AI is moving from hype to real enterprise adoption, and Gene Munster and Doug Clinton join Excess Returns to explain what that means for investors, technology stocks, energy demand, jobs and the next phase of the AI trade. We discuss why AI may still be early in its bubble cycle, how frontier models like GPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok compare, why AI-powered investing is becoming more practical, and where the biggest second-order opportunities may emerge.Gene Munster on Xhttps://x.com/munster_geneDoug Clinton on Xhttps://x.com/dougclintonDeepwater Asset Managementhttps://www.deepwatermgmt.com/Intelligent Alphahttps://www.intelligentalpha.co/Main topics covered:• Why Doug Clinton still thinks AI could become a bigger bubble than dot-com• How Claude Code, Codex and frontier AI models are changing enterprise productivity• The job disruption risk for knowledge workers and why AI adoption may become a survival skill• Why the AI model race may not be winner-take-all• How Intelligent Alpha uses large language models to evaluate stocks and earnings expectations• Why GPT, Claude and DeepSeek perform differently across investing tasks• The AI infrastructure boom and why energy may be one of the most underappreciated bottlenecks• Hyperscaler CapEx, data centers and the investment case for continued AI spending• How major AI IPOs like SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI could affect public markets• Why space, orbital data centers and zero-gravity manufacturing could become real investment themesTimestamps:00:00 AI, electricity and intelligence04:33 Why new AI models changed the semiconductor trade09:14 What AI means for knowledge worker jobs14:03 Codex, Claude Code and Google’s AI challenge18:50 OpenAI, Apple and the model capacity race23:03 How many frontier AI models can survive?27:18 Intelligent Alpha’s AI earnings benchmark31:34 Why AI investors avoid emotional bias35:33 Where to invest in the AI stack39:00 Why AI energy demand is still underappreciated43:43 How markets are judging hyperscaler AI spending48:00 The investment opportunity in space52:20 Final thoughts and closing
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About Excess Returns
Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more.
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