Katie Stockton Still Sees a Bull Market. So Why Is Her ETF Only 50% in Stocks?

Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies explains why the S&P 500 can reach record highs while many individual stocks struggle. She sees the bull market as intact, but weaker participation raises an important question for diversified investors: is the pullback creating opportunity, or signaling a more lasting change?In this episode of Excess Returns, Katie Stockton joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to examine market breadth, rising Treasury yields, sector leadership and the signals that would change her outlook. She also explains why the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF holds roughly half its assets in equities at the time of the conversation, and walks through the charts for gold, oil and Bitcoin.Topics covered:Why narrow leadership can sustain the index while diversified portfolios lagThe difference between an overbought market and a downturn in momentumWhy weak breadth alone is not a reliable market-timing signalSmall-cap support levels and the difference between a relief rally and a lasting recoveryThe Treasury-yield breakout and credit spreads as a longer-term risk gaugeSector relative strength, technology leadership and international market concentrationHow the TACK ETF's rules-based approach produces more defensive positioningGold's role as a potential hedge despite a weakening price trendCrude oil's support and resistance levels and Katie Stockton's Bitcoin outlookThe BNAV ETF's tactical Bitcoin strategy and the risk signals to watch into year-endLearn more about Fairlead Strategies.Follow Katie Stockton on X.Chapters:00:00 The bull market and weakening breadth06:02 Narrow leadership and small-cap weakness13:43 Treasury yields, breakouts and resistance18:56 Credit spreads and sector leadership24:53 TACK positioning, semiconductors and international stocks30:22 Gold, oil and Bitcoin: reading the trends35:30 Bitcoin indicators and the BNAV strategy39:47 Credit, volatility and tech: the year-end risk watch Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network.No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.