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Monetary Matters with Jack Farley: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Jack Farley
Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters.
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- 2 days ago1h 21m
Ed Zitron on Anthropic's IPO (S-1), AI Debt, and Counterparty Risk
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Ed Zitron, author of the Where's Your Ed At newsletter and host of the Better Offline podcast, returns to Monetary Matters to break down Anthropic's leaked IPO prospectus, as reported by Reuters. Ed argues that in 2025 Anthropic spent $2.75 for every dollar of revenue, worse than OpenAI's $2.60, and that nearly half its sales ran through Google and Amazon, two companies that also compete with it. We discuss Anthropic's $518 billion in compute commitments, why AI "run rate" figures can be misleading, and what the reported surge in 2026 revenue does and doesn't tell us. Ed also gives his take on Meta's Muse and OpenAI's Dots, and on whether AI agents can win over consumers. Then we turn to the credit markets: CoreWeave's borrowing costs, Oracle's ratings risk, data center SPVs trading below par, and how much of this debt sits with private credit lenders. Ed closes with his predictions for the Anthropic IPO and what he expects the AI build-out to look like by this time next year. Recorded afternoon of September 30, 2026. Ed Zitron on X https://x.com/edzitron Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Pieces Discussed: “Dead Money” (Sep 29, 2026): https://www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money/ “Premium: The Hater's Guide To AI Debt (Part 2)” (Sep 25, 2026): https://www.wheresyoured.at/premium-the-haters-guide-to-ai-debt-part-2/ Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Important Information The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically. An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/ Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies. Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund. Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee. The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
- 3 days ago1h 14m
Token Bill Dwarfs CPU Bill | Ben Pouladian on Meta's Muse, Anthropic S1, and Why All Roads Still Lead to NVIDIA
Ben Pouladian of BEP Research returns to Monetary Matters to break down who's winning and losing in AI right now, starting with Meta's Muse, the consumer agent he calls the "McDonald's version" of AI, and why he thinks its revenue will come mostly from ads rather than subscriptions, especially across WhatsApp-first markets like India and Brazil. Ben explains why the token bill for agentic AI dwarfs the CPU bill, why the key metric is becoming cost per token per megawatt, and why he believes "all roads and rockets lead to NVIDIA." He makes the case against AMD, including his open letter to Lisa Su and the scaling challenges of the Helios rack, and argues that NVIDIA GPUs are the "Rodeo Drive" of digital real estate because they are fungible and financeable in a way custom ASICs are not. Jack pushes back with TrendForce data showing every part of the AI supply chain is tight except GPUs, and Ben responds that commodity bottlenecks like memory and hard drives get crushed once supply catches up, while the true bottleneck is powered, permitted land. They discuss the growing data center backlash and whether the base case should be 25 gigawatts rather than 43, Anthropic's S-1 and its roughly half-trillion-dollar compute commitments, and whether AI lab revenue can double again next year. The conversation closes with scaling laws, why models will segment like grades of gasoline, AI's move into biology and drug discovery, and stock ideas including Meta, Lam Research, and Lattice Semiconductor. Recorded September 29, 2026. “Meta's Muse Rally Bought the Wrong Layer. We modeled a billion agent users. The investment case turns on activity, token costs and trust”: https://newsletter.bepresearch.com/p/metas-muse-rally-bought-the-wrong?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2 Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Ben Pouladian on X https://x.com/benitoz BEP Research: https://www.bepresearch.com/ Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
- 6 days ago1h 5m
The Private Credit Boom is Over: Redemption Requests Exceed Liquidity | James Elbaor | Marlton LLC
James Elbaor, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Marlton LLC joins OPM to discuss why the private credit boom is officially over. Elbaor explains how artificial intelligence is threatening the SaaS businesses that make up over half a trillion dollars of private credit exposure, while also detailing how liquidity gates are currently trapping investors in massive interval funds like BCRED. The discussion concludes by exploring lucrative upcoming merger opportunities in the public BDC space and analyzing why asset managers utilizing permanent capital vehicles are being rewarded with premium market multiples. Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login Follow James on X: https://x.com/jameselbaor Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:42 Private Credit Redemptions Continue 07:03 IPO Window Shuts & Credit Fund M&A 15:28 AI Threat to SaaS Borrowers 16:51 Sponsor Message Plutus 18:17 Private Credit vs Private Equity 24:25 Systemic Risk and Wrappers 29:15 Public vs Private BDC Gap 34:46 Why Interval Funds List 39:44 Alt Managers Valuation Reset 43:33 Permanent Capital Explained 50:17 Hedge Funds vs Private Equity 54:41 Pershing Square Liquidity 01:04:17 Conclusion
- 1 weeks ago55 min
Why the Fed May Have to Hike Far Higher Than Expected | Henry Peabody on the Fed’s Triple Mandate and Uneven Transmission of Monetary Policy
Henry Peabody, senior investment strategist at GMO, joins Monetary Matters to explain why the Fed has an unofficial third mandate: managing how credit flows through an economy that is increasingly outside the banks. With private credit and fixed-rate borrowing loosening the link between Fed policy and the real economy, Henry argues that rate hikes are hitting consumers and weaker borrowers while large corporates and the AI complex keep borrowing almost regardless of cost. That bifurcation, he says, means the Fed may have to take rates higher than anyone expects to cool demand, adding risk to markets. Jack and Henry discuss the opacity of private credit, why the credit cycle is "one of the most dependable things in finance," why recoveries on software loans could be close to zero, and the lessons of BDCs in 2008. Henry also shares how GMO is positioning in fixed income: less duration and less vanilla credit risk, more short-duration structured credit, and a preference for emerging market local debt. They close on the dollar, where long-term rates are headed, and the fiscal reckoning coming for Social Security. Recorded September 17, 2026. “Triple Mandate” by Henry Peabody: https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/triple-mandate_whitepaper/ Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
- 1 weeks ago53 min
Energy Shock and Rate Hikes Could Cause a 2022 Style Bear Market | Eric Wallerstein | Clocktower Group
Eric Wallerstein, Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, joins OPM to discuss why he sees substantial risk that the Fed is making a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock that could cause a 2022 style bear market. He also explores the global coordination of rate hikes and why he believes the participation of lower growth economies like Canada indicate that this is a reaction to higher energy prices and not a substantially higher global neutral rate. Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login Follow Eric on X: https://x.com/ericwallerstein Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:56 Fed Hike and Higher for Longer 02:30 Oil Driving Global Yields 05:58 Canada and Global Neutral Rate 07:14 Energy Crisis and Degrowth Risks 08:44 Politicized Fed and Credibility 11:50 Neutral Rate and AI CapEx Boom 14:47 Inflation Outlook and Policy Mistakes 17:20 Plutus Sponsor Break 18:46 Key Data to Watch: Bank Lending 20:07 Doves vs Hawks and Fiscal Drag 23:30 2022 Style Bear Market Setup 25:56 What Could Invalidate the Thesis? 26:41 BOJ Hike and Yen Intervention 31:20 Korea Silicon Boom 35:43 Europe Under Pressure 39:25 Middle East Outlook 43:06 Midterm Issues: AI vs. Gas Prices 48:34 China Oil Strategy 52:10 Big Calls Wrap
- 1 weeks ago1h 12m
Outlook on 5 Key Commodities: Metals Bull Market is Just Getting Started (Gold, Copper, & Uranium) | Jérémie Boyer | Aurelion
Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login Jérémie Boyer, co-founder of Aurelion Research, joins OPM to give his outlook for 5 key commodities. He explains why after avoiding earlier downside volatility in gold he just got the buy signal he’s been waiting for, and why the longer-term AI driven bull thesis on copper is very real and happening now. He also gives his outlook for uranium, fertilizer, and oil and discusses how he and his partner turn commodity views into a portfolio of equities that is up over 100% since inception a little over 1-year ago. Aurelion Research: https://aurelionresearch.com/ Follow Aurelion Research on X: https://x.com/AurelionRsch Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:16 Why Gold Could Hit 5K 05:45 Geopolitics Over Rates 09:24 Portfolio Positioning 12:28 Managing Miner Cycles 16:26 Plutus 18:26 Bearish Oil & Fertilizer 20:28 Oil Thesis & China Inventories 33:23 Royalties as Exposure 36:07 Valuing Royalty Companies 42:48 Why Uranium Now 46:10 Uranium Contracts & Supply 51:10 Energy Security and Nuclear Buildout 54:31 Copper Bull Case in AI Era 01:00:05 Picking Copper Stocks 01:06:43 Five Commodities Recap 01:11:26 Closing and Where to Follow
- 2 weeks ago1h 7m
Why The 30-Year Treasury Lost Its Biggest Buyers | David Busch on Why High Yields Are Attractive Right Now
Jack Farley is joined by David Busch, Chief Investment Officer of Trajan Wealth, to discuss rising U.S. Treasury yields, persistent inflation, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory. Busch breaks down the structural drivers behind elevated bond yields, including $40 trillion in national debt, geopolitical energy shocks, and massive corporate debt issuance for AI infrastructure. He explains how higher interest rates and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s bond buyback program impact market liquidity and equity valuations. Moving to equities, Busch argues that software stocks like Intuit are heavily oversold regarding perceived AI disruption risks. He highlights the real bottleneck of the AI boom, pointing to critical supply needs in energy, rare earth minerals, and nuclear power. Busch also warns investors about hidden credit and liquidity dangers within private credit markets. Finally, he lays out why 3-to-5-year U.S. Treasuries still serve as an essential portfolio ballast in high-yield regimes. Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 About David Busch https://trajanwealth.com/leadership/ Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
- 2 weeks ago1h 3m
Hawks Take Flight | Joseph Wang on Fed’s Hawkish Hike and Warsh’s Gameplan
This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Get 15% off any paid tier at: https://fiscal.ai/mm/ Former Fed trader Joseph Wang joins Jack Farley live to break down Chair Kevin Warsh's third meeting — and his first rate hike, framed as "removing a dose of accommodation" against a Middle East oil-shock backdrop. Joseph explains why he called the hawkish move well ahead of the consensus, reading the Jackson Hole signals on financial conditions and the new emphasis on the "speed" of returning to target. The conversation digs into the hawkish dot plot and higher-for-longer path, what a supply-shock reaction function means for the long bond and 30-year TIPS, mortgage rates above 7%, and the plumbing beneath it all — repo, SOFR, the basis trade, and Treasury buybacks. In the second half, Max Wiethe joins to make the case for refiners as the trade of the year, walking through crack spreads, Marathon and Valero, Chinese crude flows, and diesel and fertilizer dynamics. They close on long-bond convexity versus the rate sensitivity of the AI and neocloud buildout, and why Max thinks estimates for names like Lam Research are far too low. A wide-ranging live reaction spanning the Fed's hardest decision in years and the market's response. Recorded September 16, 2026. Follow Joseph Wang on X https://x.com/josephwang Follow Max Wiethe on X https://x.com/maxwiethe Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
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