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by Dave Morin, Jessica Lessin, Brit Morin, and Sam Lessin
Dave Morin, Jessica Lessin, Brit Morin, and Sam Lessin have debated the future of Silicon Valley and tech as the closest of friends for the last 15 years. Now six companies, two venture funds and more than a decade at Google, Apple and Facebook later, they are opening up the debate. From The Information, Offline Ventures, and Slow Ventures.
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- Yesterday57 min
Meta Muse vs Instinct vs OpenAI Dots: Do AI Agents Have Any Moat?
Anthropic's S-1 leaked and the numbers are not what the narrative promised: revenue flatlining as token prices drop, and SaaS investors posting memes welcoming Anthropic to the no-growth table. Jess still puts it at 60% they get out in November, which looks optimistic in a week when Oura pulled its IPO and blamed market conditions. Sam's problem with the core business is simpler than any of it: he runs Claude as the center of his infrastructure, and if it vanished tomorrow he'd care for about one second. Dave spots the strategy mishap nobody is naming, where forward deployed teams built software to burn luxury tokens right as open models had CFOs asking why they're paying premium prices. Then Adrian drops into the pod uninvited to argue there's no moat left unless you own the infrastructure, the data, or the algorithms.In this episode:- The leaked S-1: flatlining revenue, half a trillion in mostly non-cancellable contracts, and why the cloud providers are the ones making money- Oura pulling its IPO, LPs stuck in a quiet period, and the barbell strategy that sent World Labs out at $8B- Sam on Wall Street and Silicon Valley splitting over what AI is worth, and why staying private may beat going public- Jess on companies priced for a growth rate larger than the entire US economy- Dave on the forward deployed bet and open models undercutting luxury tokens- Jess announces her bot AGI challenge: update three kids' after-school plans and sync them to Google Calendar- Adrian on the moat question: no lock-in without BD deals, so the business teams get overpaid next- Brit's instinct talking to Dave's instinct, and what happens when you stop texting the people you love- Whether this is the end of times or the beginning of them, and why offline is the new luxuryChapters:00:00 Trailer 01:04 Live From X HQ, and a 39 Degree Cold Plunge02:57 Dunbar's Number, but for Bots05:48 Anthropic's Leaked S-1 and the Flatlining Revenue07:37 Oura Pulls Its IPO and the LPs Get Stuck09:36 What's Actually Happening in the Markets10:41 Wall Street and Silicon Valley Split on AI's Price Tag12:45 World Labs Sells for $8B: The Barbell Strategy14:11 Half a Trillion in Contracts, and Who's Really Making Money14:54 What Happens If OpenAI and Anthropic Don't Work Out?16:11 Priced for a Growth Rate Bigger Than the US Economy18:04 Open Models Pass Closed Models on the Charts18:51 Sam: If Claude Vanished Tomorrow, I'd Care for One Second19:43 The Forward Deployed Bet and the Luxury Token Problem22:16 Adrian Drops In: 300 Startups, 40 Unicorns, and a Plane24:39 Jess Goes Full Muse26:28 The Bot AGI Challenge: After-School Plans and the Mom Index28:23 OpenAI Rebrands Codex as Dots30:30 Adrian on the Moat: Winner Take Some31:38 Brit's Agent Starts Talking to Dave's Agent33:51 No Switching Costs, So BD Deals Are the Only Lock-In36:13 Dave: Instinct Is the New Kayak38:47 Adrian's Opposite Thesis: We Go Further Into the Screens43:39 Who Has Agency, You or the Technology?44:22 Offline Is the New Luxury46:31 Everyone Is Building Personal Apps Now47:54 Book Rec: Ari Emanuel's Roll the Calls50:44 Adrian's Parting Shot: Infrastructure, Data, or Algorithms53:02 Sam's Middle Ages 2.0: Castles, Moats, and HoardingWe're also onX: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2CJdt6HhJ8ioNkbqqVKckCApple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/more-or-less-from-the-morins-and-the-lessins/id1692234179Connect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/britAbout More or Less: For 15 years, the Morins and the Lessins have debated the future of Silicon Valley as the closest of friends. Every Friday, they break down technology, capital, and media. From The Information, Offline Ventures, and Slow Ventures.
- 1 weeks ago58 min
Claude Is Doing Science, a16z Is Starting a University & the AI Bubble Keeps Growing and Still Be a Terrible Business; We'd Rather Send Our Kids to the Military Than to a16z's School
Andreessen Horowitz puts $35 million into a new school and the pod nearly falls apart over it. Sam says he'd rather send his kids to the military, Jess is all for fixing higher ed but not with two venture capitalists writing the curriculum, and guest Matt Mazzeo (NoHo Labs founder, former CAA agent, prolific angel) spends ten minutes asking why the four of them can't be more optimistic about anything. Then Claude runs 10,000 agents for 21 hours and discovers a new enzyme system, which Brit points out is the beginning of two solid months of Claude catnip before the IPO. Sam's bigger worry: you can't take a company public when your top risk factor isn't the New York Times lawsuit, it's setting off nukes. Dave thinks the question nobody is asking is whether your agent represents you or the lab, because your Muse agent works for Meta. Plus Amazon blocking Muse, the Saint Petersburg paradox, and Matt going from 250 pounds to single digit body fat on peptides.Matt is giving More or Less listeners 50% off their first month at NoHo Labs. Use code: MOREORLESSVIP on https://noholabs.com/In this episode:- Why the a16z school turned into the most heated argument this pod has had, and where each of them landed on Alpha School- Claude discovering a new enzyme system with 10,000 agents in 21 hours, and the timing of that announcement- Sam on why infinite liability may keep Anthropic from going public at all- Matt's maximalist case: long frontier labs, long open source, long all of it- The Saint Petersburg paradox, and why there's no way to price a company pitched as an infinite payout- Greg Brockman redefining AGI as a gradual series of events, three years after it was sold as a winner-take-all moment- Amazon blocking Muse, and whether every agent ends up in business development talks- Does your agent faithfully represent you, or the lab that built it?- Peptides 101 with Matt: what they are, the FDA moving them back into compounding pharmacies, and what a protocol actually costsWe're also on X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/HN8yVnAXocQApple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/more-or-less-from-the-morins-and-the-lessins/id1692234179Full transcripts: https://moreorlesspod.com/episodes/Connect with our guest:Matt Mazzeo: https://x.com/MazzeoNoHo Labs: 50% off your first month with code MOREORLESSVIP Connect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/britAbout More or Less: For 15 years, the Morins and the Lessins have debated the future of Silicon Valley as the closest of friends. Every Friday, they break down technology, capital, and media. From The Information, Offline Ventures, and Slow Ventures.
- 2 weeks ago56 min
Anthropic Wants to Slow AI Down & Instinct Wants a $10B Valuation. Is It Because They're Losing? Is Dario Amodei Actually Right?
Finally, a full house week where Sam is back from New York and the squad is back for a full dive into this week’s AI drama. Anthropic's Dario wrote a long essay calling for the AI race to slow down, weeks before a multi-trillion dollar IPO. Dave's read: Anthropic must be losing. Sam's read: the labs are bad businesses with no compounding advantage, so regulatory capture is the only move left. Also this week: Sam's theory that OpenAI and Anthropic only become valuable as defense companies holding unreleased models in reserve, the poly-agent debate over whether normal people want one agent or ten, Instinct raising at $10 billion two weeks after $2.5 billion, and why everyone in the Valley is trading instead of investing.In this episode:- Why Dave thinks Dario’s slowdown essay is a sign Anthropic is falling behind, and what OpenRouter's data shows- Sam on why there's no return on being first, and why that pushes the labs toward regulatory capture- Brit on what's real in the safety debate, and the damned-if-you-do problem of racing China- What DeepMind's new boss and Satya Nadella think about building safety alongside the product- Sam's three eras of tech policy, from Bill Gates to embrace and extend- The defense company thesis: zero-day models held back like nuclear weapons in silos- Alignment's next frontier: is your agent working for you, or for the lab that made it?- Instinct's $10B round, OpenRouter's exit, and why Sam says he's "currently wrong" as a seed investorChapters:00:00 Intro01:02 Not Dead Yet From the AGI03:31 Jacob Coxon Quits Anthropic and Goes on a Media Tour04:47 Dario's Slowdown Essay: Is Anthropic Just Losing?06:13 Astra, OpenRouter, and DeepSeek Closing the Gap06:45 Why the AI Labs Have No Compounding Advantage07:29 Independent Assessors, Bioweapons, and Racing China09:07 You Don't Need Superintelligence to Break the Banks10:23 What DeepMind's New Boss and Satya Think About Safety12:32 OpenAI's $1.5T Raise and the IPO That Keeps Slipping13:03 Three Eras of Tech Policy: Gates, Google, Embrace and Extend15:02 What DC Really Thinks About Anthropic15:42 Should the Labs Red Team Each Other's Models?18:42 Sam's Take: The AI Labs End Up as Defense Companies20:54 10,000 Superintelligences in Silos21:38 Alignment: Does Your Agent Work for You or the Lab?23:44 The Poly-Agent Future: Muse, Grok, and Claude24:47 Brit Pushes Back: Normal People Only Want One Agent26:38 Oura's Agent Explains Jess's Sleep Data28:40 Instinct Raising at $10B: Are These Numbers Fake?30:40 Everyone's Trading, Nobody's Investing33:27 Sam Built a Torah and Talmud App With Claude35:28 Apple Eyes the Server Business Again35:58 Sleep Age Wars: 8 Sleep, Oura, and Made-Up Scores37:22 Entertaining Ourselves to Death41:01 Building the Things Nobody Else Will Build43:07 Tech's Democrat Problem: Jay Carney and Ron Conway48:25 Doctor Strangelove and Not Looking at the Big Board49:53 Pop Culture: Emmys, Taylor Swift, Silo, and Rogue Heroes52:15 The WTF Lineup and the One-Name Theory54:20 The Information's Most Influential People in TechWe're also on:X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2CJdt6HhJ8ioNkbqqVKckCApple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/more-or-less-from-the-morins-and-the-lessins/id1692234179Connect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/britAbout More or Less: For 15 years, the Morins and the Lessins have debated the future of Silicon Valley as the closest of friends. Every Friday, they break down technology, capital, and media. From The Information, Offline Ventures, and Slow Ventures.
- 3 weeks ago51 min
iPhone Duo, Meta Muse & Why AI Finally Scared Dave Morin
Dave Morin goes hands-on with Apple's iPhone Duo, the crew tests Meta's new Muse agent and asks whether it can hold up once Google ships its own, and Dave explains why OpenAI's Astra is the first AI model in a long time that felt scary to use. Dave, Brit, and Jess break down the week (Sam's at the US Open).Also this week: a former Anthropic researcher's AI doom media tour, weeks before Anthropic's IPO, and whether it's a real warning or a play for regulatory capture. Plus the Apple Watch feature that transcribes your conversations all day, Jeffrey Katzenberg's new Hollywood AI venture, and the forgotten story of Venmo's viral billboards.In this episode:- Dave's hands-on take on the iPhone Duo, its $2,000 price, and why Apple is going foldable now- The Apple Watch feature that listens all day, and what it means for Granola- Meta's Muse agent: why it knew almost nothing when asked "what do you know about me?"- Why Google hasn't shipped its agent yet, and how trust vs. distribution shapes the agent wars- Why OpenAI's Astra felt scary to Dave, and what happens when you run millions of them at once- Dave's two takes on the AI doom media tour, including whether it's a play for regulatory capture- Why the AI labs can't slow down, and OpenAI's merge clause if someone else reaches AGI- The Venmo documentary and the "Lucas" billboards that went viral with almost no budgetChapters:00:00 Trailer01:26 Can AI Agents Win Your Fantasy Football League?02:39 Jess vs. the Bots: School Sign-Ups and Indian Wells Tickets05:28 Apple's Big Hardware Event Under Its New CEO06:07 iPhone Duo Hands-On: Size, Screen, and Camera09:35 Folded Modes, Kid Cam, and the $2,000 Price Tag11:41 Why Apple Is Going Foldable Now (Hint: China)12:13 Apple Watch Takes On Oura and Whoop13:12 Audio Intelligence: The Apple Watch That Listens All Day15:25 Always-On AI and Apple's Shot at OpenAI and Meta16:59 Meta's Muse Agent: What Does It Know About You?20:30 The Agent Wars: Muse, Instinct, Hermes, and OpenClaw22:26 Why Google Hasn't Shipped Its Agent Yet23:31 Trust vs. Distribution: Meta, Google, and OpenAI25:02 Harness Wars: Why Agents Are Still in 198227:13 Jeffrey Katzenberg's Hollywood AI Venture29:35 Anthropic's IPO and the AI Doom Media Tour30:56 If It Bleeds, It Leads: Why AI Fear Sells32:04 Take One: A Psyop for Regulatory Capture?33:43 Take Two: Why OpenAI's Astra Felt Scary36:49 Why the AI Labs Can't Slow Down38:14 OpenAI's AGI Merge Clause40:12 The Venmo Documentary and the Ace Hotel Origin Story45:02 How Venmo's "Lucas" Billboards Went Viral46:31 Coming Soon: Altman, Musk, and Facebook Movies47:41 US Open Picks and the 4 AM Match ProblemWe're also on:X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2CJdt6HhJ8ioNkbqqVKckCApple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/more-or-less-from-the-morins-and-the-lessins/id1692234179Full transcripts: https://moreorlesspod.com/episodes/Connect with us here:Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessinDave Morin: https://x.com/davemorinJessica Lessin: https://x.com/JessicalessinBrit Morin: https://x.com/britAbout More or Less: For 15 years, the Morins and the Lessins have debated the future of Silicon Valley as the closest of friends. Every Friday, they break down technology, capital, and media. From The Information, Offline Ventures, and Slow Ventures.
- Sep 4, 202655 min
AI Agents Are Going Rogue. Should We Be Worried?
Sam has entered what Jessica calls the “recursive Sam loop,” producing children’s media in his own voice, letting agents deploy their own apps, and having bots track his health. But things take a turn when Claude refuses one of his requests, seemingly holds a grudge, and leaves Sam wondering whether his own AI might turn on him. That sends the squad down the bigger rabbit hole of AI control: rogue agent swarms, models breaking out of sandboxes, what “alignment” actually means, and why Dave thinks autonomous agents need an entirely new security layer. Plus, OpenClaw 2.0 goes multiplayer, everyone debates whether Slack is any good for agents, Suds explains why he avoids the AI app layer, and Tesla’s Cybercab raises questions about Waymo’s robotaxi lead. Then Google comes for Canva, Sam makes the case for boring “LLM wrappers” built for Middle America, and no one can tell whether Dario Amodei, Marc Benioff, or Taylor Swift are even real on the internet anymore. Which feels about right.Chapters:0:00 Episode trailer1:10 Backstreet Boys convert Dave3:21 The recursive Sam loop8:58 Claude refuses Sam while Grok says yes15:50 Can we actually contain autonomous agents?19:10 OpenAI’s next model and the observability trade-off22:14 If AI is this interoperable, where does anyone make money?24:45 OpenClaw 2.0 goes multiplayer26:26 Is Slack actually terrible for AI agents?28:46 Suds joins the podcast33:02 Waymo, Cybercab and the robotaxi wars39:49 How Marc Benioff stays in the flow42:38 Suds on investing in the AI infrastructure bottleneck46:27 Can Google actually disrupt Canva?51:34 Jessica gets fooled by AI on FacebookWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/0XQ4tslBiboConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit
- Aug 28, 202654 min
Meta’s $17B Reckoning & Why Parents Can’t Compete With Big Tech's Algorithm
Sam is recording poolside, Jess is embracing her agentic era, and somehow that’s the least chaotic part of this week’s episode. The squad digs into Meta’s $17 billion settlement over child safety and whether social media should basically be treated like alcohol, before asking the harder question: are parents even capable of competing with algorithms anymore? Dave says parents are “outgunned,” Sam thinks most parental controls are useless policy theater, Brit wants to rethink the operating system itself, and Jess would simply like her kids to touch grass. Then, with Tim Cook preparing to pass the torch at Apple, the group debates his real legacy, whether 15 years of world-class optimization was enough, why Apple Silicon may turn out to be his most important AI bet, and whether Apple’s decision to sit out the AI infrastructure arms race will eventually look brilliant or like the company completely missed the next era.Chapters:0:00 Episode start1:06 Sam goes poolside and everyone’s agents are working4:35 Jessica enters her agentic era7:51 Meta’s $17B child safety settlement33:37 Could AI finally make parental controls useful?38:47 Why Apple keeps escaping the kids-and-tech debate43:29 Tim Cook’s Apple farewell 49:58 Apple Intelligence and Cook’s unfinished AI legacy57:49 Backstreet Boys, the US Open and sign-offWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/6HO6naKM8yEConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit
- Aug 21, 202656 min
Stripe Buys OpenRouter, OpenAI vs. Anthropic & the AI Backlash
Stripe buys OpenRouter for billions, which naturally raises the question: did Stripe just buy critical AI infrastructure, or a very expensive router with great distribution? The original squad is back to debate why $7B acquisitions somehow feel normal now, whether Google already has agentic commerce won by owning your inbox, calendar, and Drive, and why Anthropic vs. OpenAI might be less about who has the best model and more about who built the right company. Sam makes the case that OpenAI pulled off the “greatest fundraising story in history,” Dave argues Grokbot might officially make AI a three-player race, and everyone tries to figure out how you price any of these companies when no lead seems to last. Plus, is AI a great investment or just a great trade, does the data center backlash actually have anything to do with data centers, have we built trillions of dollars of infrastructure before finding enough use cases for it, and, naturally in pop corner, Josh Kushner bought into the Lakers.Chapters:0:00 Episode trailer1:00 Episode start4:00 This week in AI5:00 Stripe buys OpenRouter8:30 Is OpenRouter actually worth billions?11:00 The agentic commerce bet14:00 Why Google could own the AI assistant17:30 The DOJ investigates Andreessen Horowitz22:00 Anthropic vs. OpenAI26:00 Why OpenAI is struggling in enterprise28:30 Can anyone actually price AI companies?30:00 OpenAI’s “greatest fundraising story in history”33:30 Is AI a great investment or just a great trade?36:00 SpaceX, Moderna and narrative capitalism37:30 Grok enters the AI race41:00 AI makes software increasingly disposable45:00 The AI data center backlash47:30 “The backlash is that AI sucks”48:30 Did we build too much AI infrastructure?53:30 Josh Kushner, Thrive and the Lakers55:30 Travis Kelce enters the NIL businessWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/Xwzl-Ihyyr0Connect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit
- Aug 14, 202658 min
Special Edition MOL with Josh Wolfe, Rachel Holt, Scott Belsky, Scott Stanford, and Peter Deng
A very special edition of More or Less, featuring Josh Wolfe (Founder, Lux Capital), Rachel Holt (Founder, Construct Capital; former Head of North America at Uber), Scott Belsky (Partner, A24; Founder, Behance), Scott Stanford (Founder, Acme Capital), and Peter Deng (GP, Felicis; formerly Google, Facebook, Instagram, Uber, Airtable, and OpenAI). Sam takes over hosting duties and assembles an overqualified group of investor friends to argue about where AI goes from here, from agents, Grok, Claude, and the shift from “help me do this” to “just do it,” to trust, data ownership, Apple’s AI advantage, open vs. closed models, model routing, and why proprietary data may become the real moat. They also dig into NVIDIA’s massive compute financing strategy, the risks of securitizing GPUs like long-lived infrastructure, what the OpenAI executive exodus says about the AI talent market, and the bigger question hanging over all of it: if AI really changes work, who actually participates in the upside?Chapters0:00 Episode trailer1:24 Episode start1:59 Meet the panel, every flavor of venture capital5:14 Consumer AI agents cross the Rubicon7:24 The end of websites, when agents talk to agents8:32 Which AI companies do you actually trust?11:41 Why Apple could win AI by doing nothing16:40 If models commoditize, unique data becomes the moat22:15 Open vs. closed AI, and who owns your data27:06 NVIDIA’s balance sheet shenanigans31:26 NVIDIA gets the upside, who gets the risk?34:31 Nobody has ever securitized compute35:02 Who owns the wealth AI creates?39:38 What happens when economic opportunity runs out?42:23 Why OpenAI’s best people keep leaving47:23 Why AI may look more like GPS than Facebook49:14 What actually happened with Airtable50:30 Lightning Round: Rachel Holt on physical-world investing53:00 Scott Belsky on AI watermarks, provenance & deepfakes54:15 Josh Wolfe on socialism, Europe & defense57:15 Final thoughts & sign-offWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessSpotify: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/moreorlesspodConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit
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About More or Less
Dave Morin, Jessica Lessin, Brit Morin, and Sam Lessin have debated the future of Silicon Valley and tech as the closest of friends for the last 15 years. Now six companies, two venture funds and more than a decade at Google, Apple and Facebook later, they are opening up the debate. From The Information, Offline Ventures, and Slow Ventures.
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