Reasonably Optimistic

What prediction markets tell us about the future

May 13, 2026·34 min
Episode Description from the Publisher

Prediction markets are having a moment. But what are they actually good for? Economist Robin Hanson has been thinking about this for decades. Long before betting markets went mainstream, he argued they could do more than forecast the future — they could help us make better decisions.Host Megan McArdle talks with Hanson about how prediction markets work, why they often beat other forms of forecasting and how today’s versions could be improved.Subscribe to The Washington Post here.

Podzilla Summary coming soon

Sign up to get notified when the full AI-powered summary is ready.

Get Free Summaries →

Free forever for up to 3 podcasts. No credit card required.

Listen to This Episode

Get summaries like this every morning.

Free AI-powered recaps of Reasonably Optimistic and your other favorite podcasts, delivered to your inbox.

Get Free Summaries →

Free forever for up to 3 podcasts. No credit card required.