Dan Niles: We're 100% in an AI Bubble... Don't Go Broke Trying to Call the Pop

Dan Nathan hosts Dan Niles of Niles Investment Management on the Risk Reversal podcast to discuss macro conditions, AI-driven market leadership, and lessons from prior tech cycles. Niles compares the current AI build-out to 1997–1998’s internet infrastructure boom, arguing recent macro scares (tariffs, Iran/oil) created buying opportunities and that a bubble can persist, with further gains likely before a potential 30–50% drawdown next year. He cites a January 30 “agentic AI” step-change increasing token/compute demand, supporting strong CapEx and earnings growth, and notes Nvidia’s growth versus valuation relative to past leaders like Cisco. They debate rising yields, inflation measures, and expectations for a rate-cutting Fed chair (Kevin Warsh). The conversation covers Intel’s potential benefit from agentic shifts, corporate AI cost pressures, likely disruption to software/IT services and knowledge work, Micron’s HBM-driven surge and cyclicality risks, and how major IPOs like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could reshape flows and create new short opportunities. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media