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Sound Investing: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Paul Merriman
Weekly podcasts with Paul Merriman. Strategic planning for investing at every stage of life.
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- Today33 min
AVGV, Truth Tellers, AI and Finding Your Why
Paul discusses his upcoming trip to Minneapolis to address almost 100 hourly financial planners at the Garrett Planning Network annual retreat — then shows, in real time, how he uses AI alongside the Truth Tellers. This example is prompted by a Ben Felix video arguing that most people save without knowing their real “why.” Paul asked ChatGPT to explore the question and shares the full AI response, which includes the six steps to creating your “why” — from “dream before you calculate” to purpose → plan → portfolio.In the second part of this podcast he responds to the many listeners who have asked: build the worldwide all-value portfolio with five Avantis ETFs, or simply buy AVGV, a single ETF that owns the same ETFs but in different percentages? Over three years, AVGV compounded at 21.1% (up 77.4%), while the five-fund do-it-yourself version compounded at 22.2% (up 82.6%) with no rebalancing. Doing the work likely earns a better return — but a Morningstar study suggests most investors do better buying the single ETF, because it takes care of all the rebalancing and overcomes the tendency to chase returns as money is added.Paul would appreciate your feedback on this podcast: paul@paulmerriman.com.LINKS• Ben Felix video on investor myths• Morningstar “Mind the Gap 2025” study• Garrett Planning Network — find an hourly advisor• Meet the Truth Tellers
- 1 weeks ago1h 0m
Stuff Happens: Perspective From Ben Carlson's Risk and Reward
The hardest part of investing isn't choosing funds — it's building a set of beliefs strong enough to keep you disciplined when the market, the news, and your own emotions all conspire to pull you off course.In this episode, Paul sets aside the usual fine-tuning tables and turns to one of his favorite books, Ben Carlson's Risk and Reward. Table by table, Ben makes the same point in a dozen different ways: the bad stuff is normal, it's happened before, and it will happen again. The goal isn't to avoid it — it's to expect it, so you can stay the course.Along the way, Paul walks through:• The 10 worst days, months, and years in market history — and how the market behaved 1, 5, and 10 years later• Why bonds turn a 43% stock loss into something far gentler, and why a simple 60/40 has never had a losing 20-year period• How stocks actually perform before, during, and after a recession (the average is a gain)• The "dead cat bounces" of 2000–2002 and why three years of false hope wear investors down• What a century of international returns says about putting all your eggs in one basket• The most quietly important number in investing: the market's average daily return of 0.03% — a lifetime of baby stepsThe theme underneath it all: future returns will likely look a lot like the past. We simply have no way to know the sequence — and that's exactly why realistic expectations, low costs, and broad diversification matter more than any forecast.The biggest enemy of the investor, as the data keeps showing, isn't the market. It's the investor.BRINGING FINANCIAL FREEDOM TO NEW AUDIENCESLast week I spent more than three hours with 89 graduating nurses at Texas A&M University, exploring one life-changing idea: how a handful of smart financial decisions can add millions of dollars to your lifetime financial security. Many of you asked to see what these presentations look like, so we're making this one available to watch (link below).LINKS• Ben Carlson, Risk and Reward (Foundation earns when you use this link)• Texas A&M nursing school presentation (3+ hour video)• Texas A&M student feedback• Mike Piper, Social Security Made Simple / other titles• Personal Finance in Your 20s & 30s For Dummies• Free books from Paul Merriman• Boot Camp series & tables
- 2 weeks ago26 min
Is it possible that factor investing won't work?
A longtime listener wrote in after watching a Ben Felix video making the point that factor investing may not beat the S&P 500 by the end of an investor’s lifetime — and could even do worse. His question was simple: is factor investing really worth the effort?Paul’s answer turned out to be two answers, so he’s splitting it into two episodes. This week is about the thinking. Next week is about the evidence — including new data Daryl Bahls just sent over.Paul also tries something new: using AI to canvas the writings of the Truth Tellers and surface what they would say about this exact question. What emerges is a point they all agree on — good decisions do not guarantee good outcomes, and bad decisions sometimes produce wonderful ones. Bill Bernstein, Larry Swedroe, Ben Felix, Mike Piper, Christine Benz, Rob Berger, Jim Dahle and Jack Bogle each frame the same distinction: expected returns are not realized returns, and probability is not certainty.Investing is one long series of forks in the road — save or spend, stocks or bonds, index or active, buy-and-hold or market timing — and none of them come with a guarantee. What they come with is a probability. The job is to choose thoughtfully, accept the uncertainty, and have the courage to stay the course while the evidence still supports the plan.LINKS• Meet the Truth Tellers: paulmerriman.com/truth-tellers
- 3 weeks ago55 min
Back from the Baltic and 12 of your questions
Paul returns from a two-week Baltic cruise refreshed and ready to dig into the numbers. He opens with a 12-month performance review of the recommended portfolios at Avantis, DFA and Vanguard — Avantis averaged 31.1% across the 10 equity asset classes in the Ultimate Buy and Hold, versus 27.7% at DFA and 26% at Vanguard — and explains why the non-traditional index funds keep outperforming traditional cap-weighted indexes.Paul also revisits Ben Carlson’s look at the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), which grew to $30 billion under management before falling 65% while the S&P 500 gained more than 60% — a costly lesson in performance chasing, with an estimated $7.5 billion in shareholder losses.Then Paul answers 12 listener questions, with a special deep dive into table G1B — 56 years of S&P 500 vs. small cap value returns, one year at a time, plus every combination in 10% increments.QUESTIONS COVERED1. Funds that match the international and U.S. small cap value asset classes 17:182. Keep investments at Fidelity or move to Vanguard? 18:513. Is the Vanguard money market fund a good long-term emergency fund? 20:194. Pairing the S&P 500 with small cap value — the G1B fine-tuning table 21:465. Why the Four Fund worldwide portfolio uses U.S. small cap value only 31:176. Should geopolitical tension make you cash out? 33:577. Why has small cap value historically produced higher returns? 36:478. Can you get rich from investing? The Rule of 72 and $100 a month 41:519. Is the all-value worldwide portfolio better than the other strategies? (Table H2) 44:0310. Where to find the 10 Fund portfolio allocations 48:3911. Paul’s take on DFA’s micro cap fund (DFMC) 49:1612. Lump sum or dollar cost average when switching funds in a Roth? 51:57LINKS• Table H2 — Sound Investing Portfolios Comparison (Worldwide All Value)• Table H1a — Sound Investing Portfolios Asset Allocations• Fine-Tuning Table G1B — S&P 500 vs. Small Cap Value• Fine-Tuning Table G1C — S&P 500 vs. SCV, 2025 Returns• Best-in-Class ETF Recommendations
- 4 weeks ago26 min
They're Back... Talking Real Money - Investing Talk
I joined my longtime friend Tom Cock for a special edition of Talking Real Money — a wide-ranging conversation about the evolution of indexing, the proposed changes to the S&P 500, and why investors should understand both the strengths and limitations of traditional index funds. I explain why firms like Dimensional Fund Advisors and Avantis Investors use a more flexible, evidence-based approach than traditional indexing, and how academic research has reshaped portfolio construction over the past several decades.We also explore lessons from market history, including the importance of understanding major bear markets, determining appropriate risk levels, and building portfolios that align with your personal goals rather than chasing maximum returns. I share insights from the latest Dimensional Matrix Book and explain why I believe studying 100 years of market data helps investors stay disciplined during inevitable downturns.Finally, I introduce a simple but powerful strategy for helping newborns and young children build substantial retirement wealth through small annual investments that can compound over many decades.CHAPTERS0:11 Special guest Paul Merriman joins Talking Real Money0:55 Long friendship and investing partnership between Tom and Paul1:20 S&P 500 rule changes and earlier inclusion of major IPOs like SpaceX2:07 Historical examples of S&P 500 additions and omissions2:35 Microsoft’s delayed entry into the S&P 5002:56 NVIDIA replacing Enron in 20013:29 How index rule changes can affect future returns and volatility4:08 Why indexing remains the preferred strategy for most investors5:16 Traditional versus non-traditional index funds6:37 How Avantis and Dimensional incorporate factors beyond company size8:05 Why factor-based investing differs from traditional indexing9:02 Problems with rigid index reconstitution schedules10:16 Momentum, flexibility, and portfolio management advantages11:22 Introduction to Dimensional’s annual Matrix Book11:53 Using market history rather than forecasts to guide investing decisions13:09 Lessons from past bubbles, crashes, and lost decades14:20 Why Paul trusts academic research more than Wall Street forecasts15:14 The case for small-cap value investing15:49 Clarifying Paul’s allocation to small companies16:53 Investing for heirs, charities, and future generations18:10 Remembering investor panic during the 2008 financial crisis19:18 Determining an appropriate risk level for retirement portfolios20:43 Different investor goals: beating the market, maximizing returns, or minimizing risk21:28 Peace of mind versus maximum growth21:55 Helping young people build retirement wealth early22:54 The $365-per-year retirement funding concept24:09 Final thoughts and appreciation between Tom and PaulQuestions? Comments? Click!
- Jun 24, 20261h 0m
Ben Carlson and Paul Merriman on Full Disclosure
Paul Merriman joins host Roben Farzad on Full Disclosure for a rare conversation alongside Ben Carlson, director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth and author of the new book Risk and Reward: How to Handle Market Volatility and Build Long-Term Wealth. Roben called it a “truth teller tandem” — the first time these two have sat down together — and the result is an hour of warm, candid, data-grounded talk about how individual investors can actually succeed.The conversation opens with a great question: does a century of S&P 500 history mean anything when index funds didn’t even exist for most of it? Paul explains why those long-run numbers still matter — not as a promise of the next ten years, but as a guide to the full range of what markets can do. From there, Paul and Ben trace just how far investing has come since Paul entered the business in 1966: the death of the 8.5% sales load, the arrival of IRAs and 401(k)s, fractional shares, and commission-free trading. As Ben puts it, the barriers to entry have been bulldozed, and today’s investor has a better shot at strong net returns than ever before.But more choices bring more temptation. Paul and Ben dig into diversification as a risk-management tool — why a tilt toward small-cap value and a meaningful allocation to international stocks can pay off over a lifetime, even when the S&P 500 is dominating the headlines. They revisit the lost decade of 2000–2009, the lessons of Japan’s 1989 peak, and the hard discipline of rebalancing into the pain when an asset class is out of favor.They also get practical about the things keeping investors up at night: inflation as one of the biggest risks most people underestimate, the real trade-offs in today’s bond market and long-duration Treasuries, and an honest look at the FIRE movement — including why meaning, longevity, and a 30- or 40-year retirement complicate the dream of retiring early. Throughout, Paul shares his own story, including why, at 82 and with more than he needs, he still holds half his portfolio in equities because of a caution he’s carried since his twenties.Ben closes with the thought that may stay with you longest: the most important thing an investor can understand is not the market — it’s themselves. Knowing which mistake you’d regret more, and what you can truly live with, is the foundation everything else is built on.
- Jun 17, 20261h 7m
Evidence-Based Investing, Index Funds & Staying the Course
I recently sat down with Steve Chen on his Boldin Your Money podcast for a wide-ranging conversation about evidence-based investing — and why it matters more than ever in a world of speculation, hype, and constant financial noise. We covered my early days as a stockbroker in the 1960s, the psychology that trips investors up in downturns, how low-cost index funds transformed personal finance, factor investing and small-cap value, and why younger investors are being pulled toward gambling-like behavior through apps, crypto, and prediction markets. Whether you're just starting out or planning for retirement, I think you'll find it time well spent.KEY TOPICS DISCUSSED• The difference between investing and speculation• Why staying the course is emotionally difficult• Wall Street incentives and investor behavior• The origins of index fund investing• Factor investing and small-cap value explained• Why diversification matters long term• Rebalancing strategies and portfolio management• Financial literacy and generational investing habits• Why gambling behavior is becoming normalized• How AI tools like ChatGPT and Claude are changing education• The psychology behind successful long-term investorsTIMESTAMPS00:00 Introduction02:55 Paul Merriman's start in investing05:20 Wall Street incentives and conflicts of interest08:35 Why investing is harder than it looks12:25 Investing vs speculation15:40 Why people panic during market crashes17:30 The psychology of staying the course19:10 Generational wealth and financial literacy23:40 The case for index funds28:45 Factor investing explained32:30 The four-fund portfolio strategy36:00 Rebalancing and long-term returns38:00 ChatGPT, Claude, and financial education42:15 Market valuations and investor behavior45:30 Building wealth intentionally49:00 Gambling culture and modern investing51:45 Teaching financial literacy to younger generations54:00 Final thoughts on long-term investingRESOURCES MENTIONEDPaul Merriman Foundation: https://www.paulmerriman.com/Try the Boldin Planner for free: https://go.boldin.com/podcasttep110Watch Video here- https://youtu.be/y_i5wrr_tfM
- Jun 10, 202657 min
Paul & Chris Tackle 10 of your Investing Questions
Paul and Chris answer 10 listener questions in one hour — covering asset allocation, investor behavior, funds, indexes, and fund management. They also dig into Daryl Bahls' hot-off-the-press alternative portfolio analysis.CHAPTERS00:00 — Intro01:11 — Funds vs. their indexes06:04 — Which asset can I drop?10:50 — Buy and hold for a lifetime?16:04 — Tracking errors20:24 — How many years to trust a strategy?27:05 — The impact of 10% cash28:18 — What's a "good enough" return?31:57 — The new worldwide 4-fund portfolio42:29 — Too old for small-cap value?44:56 — Avantis and DFA48:27 — AVES for emerging markets value54:04 — OutroLINKS & FILESSound Investing Quilt ChartsCallan Periodic Table of Investment ReturnsTwo Funds for Life CalculatorLifetime Investment CalculatorDaryl's 4-Fund Portfolio Analysis (WW 4-Fund)Other Fine Tuning Tables (50/50)2FFL Fine Tuning Table — AllocationsWatch Video Here
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