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The Derivative: Daily Summaries Delivered
by RCM Alternatives
Welcome to The Derivative, where we dive into what makes alternative investments go, analyze the strategies of unique hedge fund managers, and chat with interesting guests from across the investment world. Hosted by RCM Managing Partner, Jeff Malec, join us to take a ride through the world of alternative investments.
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- 1 weeks ago1h 8m
“Dr. Copper”: From Chilean Mines to Chinese Smelters to AI Data Centers in the US - with Kurt Nelson & Natalie Scott-Gray
Copper steps out of the shadow of gold and silver in this wide‑ranging conversation with StoneX’s Natalie Scott Gray and SummerHaven’s Kurt Nelson. Jeff digs into why “Dr. Copper” sits at the heart of electrification, AI data centers, EVs, and defense, and how underinvestment in mines, fragile supply chains from Chile to the DRC, and China’s smelting dominance are setting the stage for structural shortages. Natalie breaks down the real fundamentals: tariffs, sulfuric acid bottlenecks, strategic stockpiling, and the difference between visible and hidden inventories, while Kurt connects it all to macro, inflation, and why investors may be underestimating copper versus the miners. Along the way, they hit on rare earths, environmental trade‑offs, and what rising retail interest in copper bars might signal about the next phase of the metals trade. SEND IT!Chapters:00:00-01:16=Intro01:17–04:58 = Natalie & Kurt: From Chemistry Labs to Copper Markets04:59–14:09 = What Makes “Dr. Copper” Special? Conductivity, AI, EVs & the Grid14:10–26:41 = Inside the Copper Supply Machine: Mines, Smelters & China’s Grip26:42–39:34 = Tariffs, Trade Wars & Regional Shortages: How Policy Moves Copper39:35–56:19 = Structural Deficits, Sulfur Shocks & the Coming Copper Crunch56:20–1:03:09 = Investing in Copper: Futures vs. Miners, Inflation & Retail FOMO1:03:10–1:08:43 = Copper Bars, Lab-Grown Diamonds & Restaurant RecsBlog Post: The Hardest Trade Is Holding the Thing That Doesn’t Hug You BackPodcast episode: Unlocking the Commodity Risk Premium with Kurt Nelson of SummerHavenFollow along on LinkedIn with Kurt Nelson & Natalie Scott-Gray and be sure to check out summerhavenindex.com and stonex.com for more information!Don't forget to subscribe toThe Derivative, follow us on Twitter at@rcmAlts andsign-up for our blog digest.Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visitwww.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer
- 2 weeks ago1h 37m
The Doctor who Traded Pork Bellies: Patrick Welton's Journey from Stanford Oncologist to one of Trend Following's Quiet Legends
In this episode, Jeff Malec sits down with Dr. Patrick Welton to trace his remarkable path from Wisconsin kid to Stanford oncologist to veteran futures trader and founder of Welton Investment Partners. Patrick shares how trading pork bellies and interest rate futures in the late 1970s to pay tuition evolved into a decades-long career shaped by mentors at Commodities Corp, relationships with legends like Paul Tudor Jones and John Henry, and a unique “outside inside trader” role that let him keep practicing medicine at Stanford while managing money. He explains how his medical background and scientific training influence his approach to risk, uncertainty, and decision-making, and breaks down Welton’s strategy mix across trend following, macro, short-term flow trading, and equity selloff protection. Along the way, Patrick and Jeff dig into the myths around trend following “dying,” why diversification and staying power matter more than narratives, how capital flows really drive short-term moves, and what it takes to survive for 30+ years in a business where most firms disappear. SEND IT!Chapters:00:00-02:03=Intro02:04-09:40=Doctor to Trader: Patrick Welton’s Origin Story, From Wauwatosa to Futures and the ER09:41-30:03= From 1987 Crash to Commodities Corp: How Patrick and Annette Turned a Side Hustle into a Trading Career30:04-43:19= Doctors, Scientists, and Traders: Embracing Uncertainty, Reflexivity, and the Real Drivers of Trend Following43:20-56:16= AI, Innovation, and the “CTA Winter”: Cycles, Flows, and the Future of Trend Following56:17-01:14:19= Building Welton’s Playbook: Diversifying Alpha, Short-Term Flows, and the Art of Surviving as an Asset Manager01:14:20-01:29:48= Alt Data, Capital Flows, and What Really Matters: Patrick Welton on Research, Edges, and the Future of Trading01:29:49-01:37:47= End-of-Month Myths, Market Microstructure, and the Limits of Short-Term EdgesFrom the Episode: Leverage Is Bad. Except When It Isn’t. Morningstar Just Made the Distinction OfficialBook: Richer, Wiser, Happier: How the World’s Greatest Investors Win in Markets and Life Book: Market Wizards, Updated: Interviews with Top TradersJack Schwager on The DerivativeFollow along with Dr. Welton and Welton Investment Partners on LinkedIn and be sure to check out Welton's website at welton.com for more information!Don't forget to subscribe toThe Derivative, follow us on Twitter at@rcmAlts andsign-up for our blog digest.Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendation
- 3 weeks ago1h 27m
Painting Corners to Protecting Portfolios: Former MLB pitcher Scott Karl on How Athletes Blow the Money, Alts, the Mental Side of Performance, and the NIL Era
In this episode, former Milwaukee Brewers left-hander Scott Karl traces his path from Carlsbad standout to big league starter to financial advisor. He swaps stories with Jeff about Bandon Dunes and his move from California to Lake Norman, then dives into his career, getting a last-minute shot after the ’94 strike, surviving as a finesse pitcher in a power era, facing legends like Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, and Sammy Sosa, and taking the mound during the 1998 home run chase. Scott shares how he lost roughly 70% of his portfolio in the dot-com bust while still playing, what it taught him about risk and advisors, and how it pushed him into wealth management. He explains why many athletes blow through life-changing money, how he builds portfolios with buffered ETFs, structured notes, and private credit, and how he manages expectations around upside, downside, and liquidity. The conversation widens to NIL, parents effectively betting travel-ball costs on scholarships, and the risk of turning college sports into a money race. Scott also talks about raising two Division I volleyball players, the mental side of high performance, and how those lessons carry into investing, before closing with his favorite baseball cities and parks, from Wrigley day games to the old Jake in Cleveland and nostalgic nights at Dodger Stadium. SEND IT!Chapters:00:00-02:21=Intro02:22-09:59= Private Jets, Bandon Dunes, and the Road from Carlsbad to the Big Leagues10:00-24:09= Facing Maddux and the Big Unit: Velocity, Wiffle Balls, and the Rise of the 100-MPH Era24:10-34:12= From Million-Dollar Contracts to Going Broke: Why Pro Athletes Struggle with Money34:13-44:17= Making a Short Career Last a Lifetime: Contracts, Risk Math, and Smoother Portfolios44:18-56:31= Buffers, Structured Notes, and Private Credit: Building Smoother Rides Through Rough Markets56:32-01:05:47= First Responders vs. Second Responders: Buffers, Managed Futures, and Protecting the Downside01:05:48-01:14:25= NIL, Transfers, and Pandora’s Box: How College Sports Turned into a Money Game01:14:26-01:22:28= From Youth Sports to Life After the Game: Parenting, Perspective, and Baseball’s Best Cities01:22:28-01:27:57= Gibsons, Wrigley Day Games, and Why Petco Might Be Baseball’s Best ParkFrom the Episode: PIVOT PODCAST (Caleb Williams podcast episode)https://open.spotify.com/episode/4qO6oXmftTn8Jl4Ru3R4Mg?si=kzx-UJ_YTe25pDr8mNHfAQ&nd=1&dlsi=4cc9da8589d542a2Follow along with Scott and Silverleaf WM on LinkedIn and be sure to check out silverleafwealth.com for more information!Don't forget to subscribe toThe Derivative, follow us on Twitter at@rcmAlts andsign-up for our blog digest.Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For mor
- 4 weeks ago1h 6m
Crisis Alpha, Cocoa Trends, and Correlated Trendlessness: Inside Aspect Capital’s Strategy with Christopher Reeve
Jeff Malec sits down with Christopher Reeve of Aspect Capital, one of the original managed futures shops with roots tracing back to the "L" in AHL. Chris shares his path from chemistry and early-2000s AI at Oxford to 22 years at Aspect, where he now runs the investment side of the business. Jeff puts every trend following critique on the table, too big, too simple, too crowded, just beta, and Chris pushes back on all of it. They dig into why the edge is real but small, why multi-model diversification is the whole game, and why stacking lookalike models is fake diversification dressed up in a lab coat. The conversation covers cocoa and silver finally paying off, the replicator debate, why bond futures are really just seven yield curves in a trench coat, the case against explicit stops, and prediction markets.Plus King Charles, horses, chickens, and the Superman jokes that write themselves. - SEND IT!Chapters:00:00-01:21=Intro01:22-11:00= From Oxford AI and Chemistry to Building a Managed Futures Powerhouse11:01-18:51= Is Trend Following Too Big and Too Simple? Edges, Critics, and the Evolution of Models18:52-27:49= Designing Durable Trend: Multi‑Model Diversification, Modulators, and the Real Meaning of Crisis Alpha27:50-35:39= Correlated Trendlessness, Crisis Alpha Expectations, and Why Aspect Refused to “Optimize” for the Last Decade35:40-44:05= From Silver to Cocoa: Why Obscure and Alternative Markets Supercharge Trend Diversification44:06-52:04= Replicators, Bond Pain, and the Illusion of Fixed-Income Diversification52:05-01:00:25= How Aspect Sizes Positions, Builds Macro Models, and Lives with Real-World Risk01:00:26-01:06:42= Systematic Macro, Horses, and “Hair‑Dryer Alpha” in Prediction MarketsFrom the Episode: Hi Ho Silver PostTrend Following’s Bond ProblemFollow along with Christopher Reeve & Aspect Capital on LinkedIn and be sure to check out aspectcapital.com for more information!Don't forget to subscribe toThe Derivative, follow us on Twitter at@rcmAlts andsign-up for our blog digest.Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visitwww.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer
- Apr 30, 202650 min
Status of Alternatives - A Live Recording from Uncorrelated Puerto Rico
Recorded live in Puerto Rico, this special episode of The Derivative features host Jeff Malec with guests Brent Johnson, Jason Buck, and Mark Tower exploring how alternative investments are behaving in a world shifting from globalization to de‑globalization. The panel covers why some managed futures and volatility strategies haven’t delivered as expected in recent crises, the growing stress in private credit and liquidity mismatches, and the evolving roles of gold and Bitcoin as hedges against instability and fiat risk. They also dig into de‑dollarization versus continued dollar dominance, the power and data‑center boom tied to AI, and the coming capital wave into defense‑related technology and critical minerals. Finally, they debate whether AI is a truly transformational, deflationary force or just another tech cycle, how it may reshape portfolios, and how Puerto Rico’s unique tax regime influences where and how to run active trading strategies. SEND IT!Asset Management One Disclaimer: Asset Management One USA Inc. is a New York-based investment advisor and a part of Asset Management One Co., Ltd. group, a global asset management company headquartered in Japan. Asset Management One USA Inc. is jointly owned by Mizuho Americas LLC (MALLC) and Dai-Ichi Holdings. Asset Management Group consists of AMO USA as well as Asset Management One Co., Ltd and its subsidiaries including Asset Management One Alternative Investments, Asset Management One International Ltd., and Asset Management One Hong Kong Limited. The views expressed in this recording are the personal views of the participants as of the date indicated and do not necessarily reflect the views of Asset Management One USA Inc. itself. This recording has been prepared solely for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation of any specific security, strategy, or investment product. Nothing in this interview is intended to be, and you should not consider anything in this interview to be, investment, accounting, tax or legal advice.Chapters:00:00-01:53= Intro01:54-10:30= When “Uncorrelated” Alts Don’t Work as Expected10:31-19:06= Private Credit’s Gray Rhino, De-Dollarization Myths, and Gold vs. Bitcoin as Fiat Hedges19:07-28:05= AI, Data Centers, and the New Defense & Minerals Supercycle28:06-36:52= Prediction Markets, Speculation, and the Gamification of Risk36:63-47:08= AI Shockwaves, Puerto Rico Tax Edges, and Letting Algorithms Run the Portfolio47:09-50:35= Wrestling w/ Risk: WWE Analogies and Final Takeaways on a Fracturing WorldDon't forget to subscribe toThe Derivative, follow us on Twitter at@rcmAlts andsign-up for our blog digest.Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visitwww.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer
- Apr 16, 202628 min
Spring Six Pack talking Florida Conferences, Bonds, AI & Hand Dryers
Join Jeff Malec for another solo Six Pack episode of The Derivative, where he riffs on everything from the post-COVID conference circuit to bond markets, AI, and yes… public restrooms. Jeff contrasts the buttoned-up energy of iConnections with the beach-side vibes of Future Proof and asks whether meeting managers face-to-face actually improves allocation decisions or just introduces new biases. He digs into Florida's great hedge fund migration and whether the tax savings actually pencil out, breaks down why the last five years have been historically brutal for bonds and what that's meant for managed futures globally, and tackles AI's deflationary potential, the "ghost GDP" thesis, and the governance question of letting a handful of private companies set moral guardrails for systems increasingly doing human jobs. On the lighter side, Jeff shares his experience racing Switzerland's legendary Inferno downhill and closes with a definitive ranking of public hand-drying solutions. If you're an allocator, markets nerd, or just someone with strong opinions about restroom hand dryers, this one's for you. Consider this episode a six pack best enjoyed in one long, thoughtful sip SEND IT!Chapters:00:00-00:41=Intro00:42-06:26= #1 Conference Circuit, iConnections vs. Future Proof, and the Allocator’s Dilemma06:27-10:26= #2 The Florida Hedge Fund Invasion and West Palm’s Second Manhattan10:27-15:19= #3 What the #$*@? Is Going On With Bonds? Managed Futures vs. a Broken Bond Market15:20-21:56= # 4 AI Deflation, Ghost GDP, and Who Sets the Moral Code for Machines?21:57-24:02= # 5 Inferno Downhills, & Ego Checks24:03-28:41= #6 The Great Hand Dryer Debate (Ranking)Roy Niederhoffer podcast episode: Making Market Music with Roy NiederhofferCitrini Blog post: When Skynet Writes a Substack: The AI Doom Piece That Moved Markets Dwarkish podcast: The most important question nobody's asking about AIAs We May Work (Taylor Pearson Whitepaper): https://taylorpearson.substack.com/p/as-we-may-workInferno Murren: The World's craziest downhill ski raceDon't forget to subscribe toThe Derivative, follow us on Twitter at@rcmAlts andsign-up for our blog digest.Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visitwww.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer
- Apr 9, 20261h 20m
The Hedge Fund that Polls Regular People Where Markets Are Going ?
In this episode, Jeff Malec sits down with Vuk Vukovic and Scott Alford of Oraclum Capital (ORCA) to explore how an academic project on elections turned into a $70M hedge fund powered by crowd predictions. Vuk explains how he and his co-founders, coming from economics, physics, and computer science backgrounds, built a survey-based system that originally nailed events like Brexit and the 2016 and 2020 U.S. elections, then adapted the same framework to financial markets. Scott breaks down how ORCA combines wisdom of crowds, network analysis, and machine learning to identify the best retail predictors each week and turn their aggregated views into directional options trades on the S&P and Nasdaq. They discuss incentives for participants, how they filter noise, why independence and diverse networks matter more than “experts,” the limits of traditional polling, and the rise, and risks, of retail trading and prediction markets. The conversation also touches on political polarization, elite networks, and what it really takes to build a differentiated strategy in today’s markets. SEND IT!Chapters:00:00-01:34=Intro01:35-12:38= Origins of ORCA: From Broken Polls to a Crowd-Powered Market Prediction Engine12:39-21:01= Why Traditional Polls Fail and How Academic Research (and Grants) Really Work21:02-35:35= Inside ORCA’s Signal: Paying Predictors, Mapping Networks, and Turning Weekly Surveys into Option Trades35:36-49:49= Timing the Crowd: Weekly Signals, Zero-Dated Options, and How ORCA Differs from Prediction Markets49:50-1:01:03= Hot Streaks, Crypto Crowds, and Why True Wisdom of Crowds Needs Independent Thinkers1:01:04-01:20:36= Retail Traders, Polarization, and Building Better Predictors: How ORCA Sees the Future of MarketsFrom the Episode: Youtube: Predict Market Moves by Oraclum https://www.youtube.com/@predictmarketmovesYoutube: https://www.youtube.com/@vuk_vukovic_author/videosPersonal website: https://www.vukvukovic.org/Follow along with Vuk , Scott and ORCA on LinkedIn, you can find Vuk on X @wolf_vukovic and ORCA @OraclumCapital as well - be sure to check out oraclumcapital.com for more information!Don't forget to subscribe toThe Derivative, follow us on Twitter at@rcmAlts andsign-up for our blog digest.Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investor
- Apr 2, 202648 min
Oil, War, and the Strait of Hormuz: What current events look like through the eyes of an energy trader
In this episode, Jeff Malec sits down with returning “resident oil guy” Brent Belote of Cayler Capital to unpack one of the wildest stretches in energy markets since COVID and Russia/Ukraine. They dig into recent oil volatility, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and why the Straits of Hormuz still matter more than most people think. Brent breaks down how traders are actually navigating this market, from tracking physical flows to managing extreme option volatility, and what could come next. Jeff and Brent also explore how EV adoption, data centers, and grid constraints collide with the energy transition narrative, and what “up $50” or even “up $100” oil scenarios actually look like from a real risk perspective. SEND IT!Chapters:00:00-01:18=Intro01:19-04:08= Fluky Winter: Snow, Melt, and the Tetons’ Weird Season04:09-18:24= Israel/Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and the New Oil Shock18:25-29:55= Closing Hormuz? Tail-Risk Scenarios, Oil Volatility, and $150 Crude29:56-37:49= Oil’s Binary Future: Hormuz Off-Ramps, $150 Risk, and 24/7 Prediction Markets37:50-48:25= Beyond Peak Oil: Shale, Venezuela, EV Myths, and an All-of-the-Above Energy FutureFrom the Episode:Whitepaper- A Crude Awakening: How Oil Prices Ripple Through the Global Economy Crude Oil goes Negative… What^%$# on The DerivativeOpenSnow’s Joel Gratz built a Pod Shop for Powder Days: the PMs are Meteorologists and the Returns are FaceshotsGoing Nuclear: How Uranium is Powering Portfolios with Trevor Hall & Justin HuhnFollow along with Brent at LinkedIn and on X @brentbelote - be sure to check out Cayler Capital on LinkedIn and at caylercapital.comDon't forget to subscribe toThe Derivative, follow us on Twitter at@rcmAlts andsign-up for our blog digest.Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visitwww.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer
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About The Derivative
Welcome to The Derivative, where we dive into what makes alternative investments go, analyze the strategies of unique hedge fund managers, and chat with interesting guests from across the investment world. Hosted by RCM Managing Partner, Jeff Malec, join us to take a ride through the world of alternative investments.
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