War on the Rocks: Daily Summaries Delivered

Is Time on China's Side? Beijing's Taiwan Calculus and the Balance of Power

When is the risk of war the highest? And what should the United States be doing about it? One of the most important but underappreciated questions in international politics is how states think about the future balance of power. Countries that believe their position is improving often choose patience. Those who fear their position is deteriorating may feel pressure to act before their advantages disappear. In this episode, Ryan is joined by Dean Cheng, Mira Rapp-Hooper, and Amanda Hsiao to explore how Chinese leaders may be thinking about time, power, and Taiwan. This episode is sponsored by Kibu, which ensures you always know who's on the other end of every conversation, wherever it happens. Learn more about Kibu at warontherocks.com/kibu

What Would Relations with Post-War Russia Look Like?

Rose Gottemoeller joined Ryan in Washington. They discussed how the West might think about relations with Russia once the war with Ukraine ends, as well as nuclear diplomacy and other critical issues. Gottemoeller was the deputy secretary general of NATO and, before that, served as a senior State Department official. She is currently at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University and has a new book out called Security Through Cooperation: Space, Nuclear Weapons, and US-Russia Relations after the Cold War (Stanford University Press).

What Does SOUTHCOM's New Autonomous Warfare Command Herald?

Gen. Frank Donovan, commander of U.S. Southern Command, sat down with Ryan to discuss the vision behind the command's new Autonomous Warfare Command and what it signals for the future of military operations in the Western Hemisphere. Donovan explains how SOUTHCOM aims to move drones and autonomous systems beyond tactical experimentation and connect them to strategic effect: disrupting cartel networks designated as terrorist organizations, strengthening cooperation with allies and partners, and giving the command new ways to see, decide, and act across a complex region. This episode was brought to you by NODA. Find out more about our friends at NODA at warontherocks.com/noda

What a Post-Orbán Hungary Means for Hungarians and Europe

Hungary has turned the page. After 16 years of rule by Viktor Orbán, opposition leader Péter Magyar has emerged as the winner by a landslide. Ryan is joined by Sándor Ésik, the lawyer and writer behind the Hungarian Muse, to understand how Orbán built his "soft-authoritarian" system, how it failed to stave off Magyar's challenge, and what comes next. Of course, Orbán was anti-Ukrainian, pro-Russian, and antagonistic towards the European Union, so they also discuss what a post-Orbán Hungary means on those fronts. And, as a bonus, Sándor shares the bizarre story of how Orbán's son — an Army officer — planned a crusade of sorts in Africa.

Why Do Many Western Defense Tech Firms Struggle in Ukraine?

Michael Kofman joined Ryan at a live event earlier this year to discuss the performance of American defense technology in Ukraine and why it often falls short. They examine the challenges of fielding and iterating systems in combat, from poor implementation and weak feedback loops to deeper mismatches between design and battlefield reality. They also explore what it takes to succeed in this environment and what it means for future conflicts. Thanks to Leonid Capital Partners for hosting the event at which this podcast was recorded.

Update from the Battlefield: Drones, Distance, and Diminishing Returns for Russia

Michael Kofman joins Ryan to unpack the current state of the Russo-Ukrainian War after his recent trip to the front. They examine how drone warfare has transformed the battlefield into a dispersed contest over a vast kill zone, why Russian infiltration tactics have failed to produce meaningful gains, and how Ukraine is working to close gaps in its strike capabilities. They also explore the growing pressure from Russian long-range strikes and how the war in Iran is beginning to shape the conflict.

Reopening the Strait of Hormuz & Saving Downed Pilots

Two retired U.S. admirals with deep experience at sea and in the air joined Ryan to discuss the military challenge of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Adm. (ret.) Jamie Foggo and Vice Adm. (ret.) John "Fozzie" Miller unpack how Iran has been able to throttle one of the world's most important waterways and what it would actually take to restore freedom of navigation. The conversation explores mines, drones, missiles, escorts, air strikes, how a Marine expeditionary unit might raid Kharg Island, and (of course) the strategy. Hours before this was recorded, news had broken that a U.S. Air Force F15E had been shot down over Iran. The pilot had been rescued at the time of recording, but the weapons system officer was still on the run (thankfully, he has since been rescued). Foggo and Miller have deep experience in this area and were able to share some insights on how these rescue operations unfold. And they close with a few words on what lessons the Navy should be learning from this war in terms of fleet design.

What It Was Like to Be Under Incoming Fire from the War on Terror to Today