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The Dividend Cafe: Daily Summaries Delivered
by The Bahnsen Group
The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press), and Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life (Post Hill Press).
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- Yesterday4 min
Tuesday - July 28, 2026
David Bahnsen fills in for Brian Szytel with the Dividend Cafe daily recap, noting the Dow rose 537 points (over 1%) while the Nasdaq fell 22 basis points, underscoring a market rotation away from semiconductors and some technology (semiconductors down almost 5%) toward more traditional/value areas. Healthcare led with a 2.3% gain, followed by consumer staples up 2% and materials up 1.66%, while energy fell 1.4% and technology fell 1.1%, reflecting unusually wide dispersion. The 10-year Treasury closed at 4.6%, down 4 basis points, alongside a broader bond rally with yields lower across the curve. Bahnsen highlights intense attention on the upcoming Fed meeting and argues there is too much focus on the Fed versus the real economy, with more commentary to follow. 00:00 Welcome and Host Swap 00:08 Market Rotation Snapshot 01:00 Sector Winners and Losers 01:36 Rates and Bond Rally 02:07 Fed Hype and Real Economy 02:45 Tomorrow Coverage Preview 02:49 Ask TBG and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
- 2 days ago17 min
Monday - July 27, 2026
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yKPl0J The Monday Dividend Cafe reviews a volatile market session where early gains faded despite oil dropping on renewed Iran-talk hopes; the Nasdaq finished slightly down, the S&P flat, and the Dow up 0.5%. The host flags NVIDIA’s move to guarantee $250B in financing for an OpenAI data center and notes NVIDIA fell 5%, while highlighting widening CCC credit spreads as a developing risk signal. Sector performance showed rotation rather than broad risk-off, with staples up and energy down on the day, and notable dispersion across semiconductors and software. Policy coverage includes a six-month tariff extension shifting toward Section 301 (10–12%) with expected legal challenges, plus midterm implications tied to Michigan’s Senate race. Economic notes: durable goods strength largely driven by data centers; new home sales up modestly but down YoY with prices off peak. Ahead: FOMC under Chair Warsh, balance-sheet tightening possibility, and ongoing earnings season. 00:00 Monday Market Rundown 00:15 Oil Hopes Fade 01:30 NVIDIA Financing Shock 02:21 Credit Spreads Warning 04:00 Sector Rotation Month 04:45 Semis And Software Dispersion 06:21 Tariffs And Trade Policy 07:49 Midterms Michigan Bellwether 10:11 Durables And Data Centers 10:51 Housing And Mortgage Lock In 11:58 Warsh Fed Meeting Preview 14:32 Oil Move And Midstream 14:45 QandA Links And Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
- 5 days ago22 min
Inflation vs. Deflation in an Age of AI
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TdOnKh David Bahnsen discusses whether the U.S. has shifted from the 1990–2020 disinflation era to a higher structural inflation range, engaging Dr. Lacy Hunt’s view that the prior 1.5–2.5% equilibrium may have broken toward 3.5–5% as globalization wanes. Bahnsen argues globalization aided disinflation but wasn’t the sole driver, emphasizing Hunt’s framework that rising government debt lowers money velocity, crowds out productive investment, and suppresses long-term growth. He questions whether deglobalization is truly structural, citing industrial-policy efforts as often half-hearted and inconsistently enforced. Turning to AI, he notes build-out is capital- and energy-intensive and can be temporarily inflationary, but sees two longer-run outcomes that both lean disinflationary: a favorable productivity-driven supply shock, or a recessionary bust if AI disappoints. He concludes the dominant backdrop remains excess government debt and spending depressing growth. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:28 Inflation Beyond Headlines 02:23 The Disinflation Era 1990-2020 04:08 Lacy Hunt and Debt Dynamics 06:35 Was Globalization the Driver 09:15 Is Globalization Really Ending 12:23 AI as the New Productivity Wave 14:02 Funding the Buildout 15:11 Two AI Outcomes Deflation Either Way 19:19 Final Takeaways and Signoff Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
- 6 days ago6 min
Thursday - July 23, 2026
In this Dividend Cafe Thursday episode, Brian Szytel recaps a broad market selloff with stocks and bonds down as the Dow fell nearly 600 points, the S&P 500 dropped 1.5%, and the Nasdaq slid 2.4% while the 10-year yield rose about four basis points to 4.7%. He attributes pressure to escalating Middle East tensions after a Houthi attack in the Red Sea, driving oil sharply higher (WTI up 6% near $92 and Brent up 7% above $100), and to disappointing earnings from bellwether tech names Google and Tesla, with Google showing negative free cash flow amid heavy CapEx. He notes markets are only about 4% off highs, cautions that volatility is normal, questions the usefulness of the Shiller CAPE given decades of “overvaluation,” and highlights very strong weekly jobless claims (187, lowest since 1969), which could raise the odds of a Fed hike. 00:00 Market Wrap Overview 00:52 Oil Shock and Rates Rise 01:27 Earnings Hit Tech Leaders 02:49 Volatility and Drawdown Reality 03:36 Shiller CAPE Debate 04:06 Jobs Data and Fed Outlook 04:54 Sign Off and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
- 1 weeks ago7 min
Wednesday - July 22, 2026
On Wednesday, July 22, Brian Szytel reports a quiet, mostly flat market day: the Dow and S&P 500 were flat, the Nasdaq fell about 0.4%, the 10-year Treasury yield rose roughly three basis points to 4.66%, and WTI oil gained about 2.5% amid continued Middle East turmoil. With no economic news, he discusses a Goldman Sachs white paper on global demographics, noting slowing or negative population growth in the developed world (Japan and China already peaked; Europe close), and that U.S. demographics are relatively better due to immigration, supporting a premium equity multiple alongside higher productivity. He also notes U.S. multinationals’ foreign revenue share has declined since the 2010s. Finally, he explains the S&P can be positive while momentum/semiconductor names enter a bear market because money rotated into other sectors, shown by equal-weight S&P strength versus cap-weight weakness. 00:00 Market Wrap Snooze Fest 00:48 Why So Quiet Today 01:14 Goldman Demographics Paper 02:00 GDP Growth Headwinds 03:14 Emerging Markets Reality Check 03:52 US Valuation Premium Case 04:21 Global Revenue And Dollar Talk 04:52 Tech Bear Market Question 05:16 Rotation Explains The S&P 05:53 Closing Thoughts And Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
- 1 weeks ago8 min
Tuesday - July 21, 2026
Brian Szytel recaps a Tuesday market rebound led by momentum stocks and semiconductors, with the Dow up over 300 points, the S&P 500 up 0.9%, and the Nasdaq up 1.3%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.63% and oil climbed to about $84 WTI and $91 Brent amid the Iran war, pressuring inflation expectations and rates. With no major economic data, he focuses on demand-pull inflation and the lagged relationship between money supply (M2) and CPI, noting M2 is up ~3.5% year-to-date and nearly 6% over 12 months, suggesting inflation could bias higher 12–18 months out despite a cooler June CPI. He discusses the Fed’s inflation-fighting rhetoric, an estimated high chance of a rate hike before year-end, and potential headwinds to risk assets from tighter policy and balance-sheet shrinkage. He also explains that point moves typically refer to the Dow for public discussion, while deeper market analysis relies on the broader S&P 500. 00:00 Market Bounce Recap 01:02 Rates and Oil Move 01:37 Money Supply and CPI 03:05 Fed Hike Risk Ahead 04:52 Dow vs S&P Explained 06:41 Wrap Up and Q&A Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
- 1 weeks ago14 min
Monday - July 20, 2026
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yvcd4b David Bahnsen reviews a modest down day for markets as Iran tensions and reported American casualties push oil above $80 (ending above $83), with the Dow down ~300, S&P -19 bps, Nasdaq -5 bps, and the 10-year yield at 4.59%; communication services and energy led while healthcare lagged. He cites IPO froth cooling, noting SpaceX below $120 versus a $135 IPO and far off highs. In politics, he highlights Maine’s Senate race likely featuring progressive Troy Jackson versus Susan Collins and notes Michigan Democrats consolidating behind Haley Stevens, outlining the difficult map for a Democratic Senate majority. Economically, he underscores the Supreme Court reversal of IEEPA tariffs lowering blended import tariffs from ~11% to ~6–6.5%, while flagging a record 105.8M outside the labor force, soft industrial production, rising import prices, and housing starts driven by multifamily. He previews next week’s Fed meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, balance-sheet maturity shortening, midstream earnings (Kinder Morgan), and answers why shorting stocks is inherently leveraged and generally unsuitable for most investors. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:17 Iran Tensions and Oil 01:24 Market Wrap and Sectors 02:17 IPO Froth Check 03:13 Senate Races Outlook 05:39 Economy Data and Tariffs 07:43 Housing and Fed Preview 09:08 Energy Earnings and Gas 10:01 Ask TBG Short Selling 12:00 Wrap Up and Links Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
- 1 weeks ago31 min
Five Things I Worry About and Five Things I Don’t
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4fhExhw From the Newport Beach studio ,David outlines five market concerns and five items he is not worried about. His worries are: extreme S&P 500 concentration (top 10 near 39% and semiconductors rising to ~20% weight), speculative retail behavior (surging ETF inflows, levered ETF growth, and elevated options/0DTE activity), a “right pocket vs left pocket” dynamic where hyperscaler AI spending transfers free cash flow to semiconductor/data-center suppliers, an S&P earnings narrative he sees as circular and priced to perfection with margin risks, and counterparty risk tied to OpenAI—especially the possibility of government “nationalizing” AI. Not worried: imminent AI job destruction (headcount rising at AI adopters), volatility, the politicized inflation narrative, near-term energy price swings, or “software is dead,” arguing AI creates winners and losers requiring due diligence; he closes noting long-term concern over government debt and preference for dividend growth. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 01:10 Market Concentration Risk 04:36 ETF and Options Frenzy 08:52 AI Capex Winners and Losers 10:46 S&P Earnings and Margins 13:25 OpenAI Counterparty Risk 16:43 AI Jobs Fears Debunked 19:15 Why Volatility Helps 20:17 Inflation Narrative Nuance 23:39 Energy Beyond ESG 25:26 Software Valuations Reset 27:03 Recap and Big Picture Close Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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About The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press), and Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life (Post Hill Press).
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