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The Dividend Cafe: Daily Summaries Delivered
by The Bahnsen Group
The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press), and Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life (Post Hill Press).
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- 2 days ago27 min
The Past, Present, and Future of The Bahnsen Group
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4iVv0QW David Bahnsen announces a temporary shift from the usual Dividend Cafe format: a normal episode on Monday, a future deep dive on long-term bond yields, and a later recap of the firm’s annual New York meetings with money managers. He marks the closing (September 30) of The Bahnsen Group becoming a wholly owned subsidiary of Hightower Advisors, explaining what changes and what does not—especially continued autonomy, culture, and client service while leveraging Hightower’s technology, compliance, cybersecurity, and client portal resources. Bahnsen recounts his path into finance from managing musical bands, early career at PaineWebber/UBS, adoption of dividend growth, move to Morgan Stanley, thriving through the financial crisis, key partnerships with Brian Szytel, Kimberly Davis, and Robert Graham, and the 2014 move to independence. He notes current scale (14 offices, 13 cities, $10.5B, ~110 employees) and reiterates he is not leaving the firm. 00:00 Welcome and Housekeeping 01:50 Why This Episode Matters 03:15 Early Life Before Finance 05:31 Entering Wall Street 07:02 UBS to Morgan Stanley 09:02 Building the Core Team 10:36 Going Independent 13:13 Choosing Hightower Partner 14:20 Growth and Evolution 16:58 Acquisition and Autonomy 20:04 What Changes for Clients 22:23 Personal Motivation Story 25:54 Closing and Next Week Preview Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
- 3 days ago9 min
Thursday - October 1, 2026
Brian Szytel hosts The Dividend Cafe from New York City on the first day of Q4, noting a benign market day (Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq flat) and a slightly steepening yield curve. He argues that higher long-term rates repricing toward nominal growth is natural, not inherently sinister, and says the first “cracks” to watch would be widening high-yield credit spreads, which remain very tight, suggesting no recession signal. He reviews economic data including initial jobless claims at 197, manufacturing PMI still expanding at 55.9, and construction spending up 0.9%, ahead of an expected 90,000 nonfarm payrolls report. Responding to an article on dividend growth, he endorses the quality of dividend growers but rejects the claim that a 3–4% yield with ~7% dividend growth is unavailable, warning that funding spending by selling shares or using option overlays on dividend portfolios can cause permanent impairment; he recommends building a dividend portfolio to meet expenses and cites David Bahnsen’s book, “Profit from the Profit." 00:00 Welcome and Market Snapshot 00:48 Rates Rising and Growth Outlook 02:06 Watching Credit Spreads 02:31 GDP Earnings and Productivity 03:56 Jobs Data and Economic Calendar 04:46 Dividend Growth Strategy Debate 06:10 Why Selling Shares Hurts 06:40 Options Overlays and Better Approach 07:20 Book Recommendation and Sign Off 07:41 Disclosures and Disclaimer Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
- 4 days ago9 min
Wednesday - September 30, 2026
On Sept. 30, Brian Szytel reports a bifurcated market into quarter-end, with the Dow down about 200 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise, led by large-cap growth; yields steepen as the 10-year and 30-year move higher. A cooler-than-expected PCE inflation report (core and year-over-year) lowers implied odds of an October Fed hike to about 35%, though Friday’s nonfarm payrolls could shift expectations. Other data were stronger: Q2 GDP revised up to 2.2%, ADP payrolls beat estimates, and consumer spending was robust, suggesting the economy is still humming despite high rates and debt concerns. He discusses a shifting Fed “put” narrative and answers why forward PEG ratios can look cheap versus expensive backward-looking metrics: higher expected growth, stronger profitability, and greater index concentration in the “Mag Seven,” with risk that earnings expectations could fall if AI spending disappoints. 00:00 Quarter End Market Recap 00:52 PCE Inflation And Yield Curve 02:07 Fed Hike Odds And Jobs Watch 02:33 GDP Payrolls And Spending 03:28 Bond Vigilantes And The Fed Put 05:35 Valuation Question CAPE Vs PEG 06:30 Tech Boom Comparisons And AI Risk 07:36 Dividend Focused Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
- 5 days ago8 min
Tuesday - September 29, 2026
Brian Szytel reviews modest market declines (Dow -131, S&P -0.15%, Nasdaq -0.10%) with major indexes still up YTD, and focuses on the bond selloff pushing the 10-year yield to about 5.24% amid speculation about 6%. He argues higher yields reflect both higher nominal growth near 6% and a Fed intent on reducing its balance sheet, with limited ability for Treasury financing tactics to meaningfully lower yields. He notes consumer confidence missed (81 vs. 89), JOLTS openings dipped slightly (7.1M vs. 7.2M), and Case-Shiller home prices rose 0.3% monthly but lag inflation amid high mortgage rates and weak price discovery. He answers why rates rise despite higher oil: the Fed targets elevated PCE/core inflation by tightening to cool broad-based price pressures. 00:00 Market Close Recap 00:29 Why Yields Are Rising 02:17 Fed Put and Bond Vigilantes 03:16 Where Rates May Settle 03:37 Today’s Economic Data 04:33 Housing Market Reality Check 05:21 Why Hike With High Oil 07:04 Wrap Up and Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
- 6 days ago19 min
Monday - September 28, 2026
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4AC4xy1 From Las Vegas ahead of an investment conference, the host recaps a volatile market day (Dow -347, S&P -0.77%, Nasdaq -0.92%) while the S&P sits near all-time highs despite very weak breadth: ~60% of S&P 500 names are down 20%+ and the market has seen repeated 52-week lows exceed highs; he clarifies a misunderstood stat showing the weighted average decline among 430 down names is 21.7%. He ties the damage to rising yields (10-year ~5.23%), notes defensives led on the down day (staples, healthcare, energy), and argues mega-cap rallies can occur within a longer consolidation after stretched valuations, with a “rubber band” in relative sector valuations. He also covers friendlier U.S.–China tone with mostly status-quo trade, election prediction-market odds, flat August durable goods, more housing price cuts and rising inventory, mixed office-market trends by city, Fed proposals to raise bank oversight thresholds, and oil near $93 with Iran/diesel-export headlines; Q3 ends this week and TBG begins annual manager meetings next week. 00:00 Welcome From Vegas 00:51 Friday Energy Plug 01:43 Market Drop Recap 02:38 Breadth Warning Signs 05:51 Bond Yields And Sectors 07:00 Mega Cap Rally Context 08:13 Valuation Rubber Band 09:30 China Talks Update 10:37 Election Odds And Senate Map 13:18 Economic And Housing Data 15:04 Fed Oversight Proposal 15:40 Oil And Energy Headlines 16:44 Week Ahead And Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
- 1 weeks ago26 min
Unapologetic Energy Bull: Meet Me in the Middle
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4rwGwnT David Bahnsen hosts the Friday Dividend Cafe and explains he chose to focus on an energy investment theme rather than the week’s surge in bond yields. He argues investors and media overemphasize headlines about the Strait of Hormuz, Iran, and WTI prices, while the energy sector remains largely ignored due to its small S&P 500 weight (about 3.5% versus Apple at 7.4%, and midstream at 0.5%). He notes oil supply disruptions have been buffered by large inventory drawdowns, and that energy equities appear disconnected from oil’s move, with valuations running about 70% of their historical relationship to the broader market. He makes a bullish, longer-term case tied to AI-driven power needs and highlights midstream “2.0” fundamentals: rising domestic and global natural gas demand, expanding LNG export capacity, hard-to-permit pipelines with inflation-protected contracts, better governance, lower leverage, and strong distribution growth potential. 00:00 Welcome And Setup 01:07 Why Energy Is Ignored 05:03 Index Weighting Reality 08:49 Hormuz Supply Shock 11:55 Oil Versus Stocks Gap 14:08 AI Needs More Power 15:16 Valuation Case For Energy 17:14 Midstream Opportunity 18:24 Midstream PTSD And Comeback 19:51 Midstream 2.0 Tailwinds 22:20 Pipelines And Capital Discipline 25:15 Wrap Up And Takeaway Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
- 1 weeks ago9 min
Thursday - September 24, 2026
On Thursday, Sept. 24, Brian Szytel recaps a down Dow day with the S&P and Nasdaq flat as markets rebounded late on optimism about U.S.-Iran talks potentially easing the Strait of Hormuz situation; WTI still rose about 3% to roughly $95. He highlights the bigger story as higher interest rates, with the 10-year yield up another 10 bps to about 5.21% and up 120 bps year-to-date, arguing media may be overstating it and noting long rates also reflect growth expectations, strong earnings, and economic activity, while higher rates also boost interest income to savers and the economy. Economic data included better-than-expected initial jobless claims (197k) and stronger new home sales (684k). He also addresses international dividend stocks, noting foreign withholding taxes can be offset via foreign tax credits, but prefers U.S. dividend growers due to steadier dividend policies and less sector concentration than Europe/Asia. 00:00 Market Close Recap 00:38 Oil Surge And Rate Shock 01:31 Why Long Rates Rise 03:01 Higher Rates Upsides 04:10 Economic Data Check 04:54 International Dividend Stocks 05:50 US Versus Overseas Dividends 07:43 Wrap Up And Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
- 1 weeks ago9 min
Wednesday - September 23, 2026
Brian Szytel reports a broad market decline driven by a bond selloff, with yields rising across the curve in a bearish flattener; the 10-year finished near 5.11%, while the 2s/10s spread remained about 21 bps. He attributes the rate move to stronger flash PMI data in services (58.7 vs. 55.7) and manufacturing (57 vs. 53.5), alongside hotter input inflation tied to fuel and transportation. Energy markets showed angst amid Iran-related developments and discussion of a possible U.S. diesel export ban, with WTI up about 2.7% to nearly $93. He then addresses comparisons between the 1990s internet boom and today’s AI boom, arguing that even profitable, durable companies like Cisco and Microsoft suffered massive drawdowns due to valuation, cautioning that today’s highly valued AI names may have too much optimism priced in. 00:00 Market Selloff Recap 00:51 Yield Curve and Recession Talk 02:02 Flash PMI Surprise 03:02 Inflation and Energy Risks 04:09 Dotcom vs AI Debate 05:49 Valuation Lessons Cisco 06:16 AI IPO Pricing Caution 07:16 Closing Thoughts and Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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About The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press), and Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life (Post Hill Press).
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