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The Grumpy Strategists: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Strategic Analysis Australia
The Grumpy Strategists chat about defence and security issues, from an Australian perspective. We say simple things about complicated issues that help cut through the politics and careful bureaucratic talking points. Critical but constructive conversations about the big security and technology issues affecting our world. RSSVERIFY
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- 2 weeks ago54 min
AUKUS at 5: Not Dead Yet. Don't make the rookie error its about submarines - it's about the "Geopolitical Imaginary"....and Dune....
In Episode 82, Marcus scours the garbage bins around government offices in Canberra to feed the SAA bunker's furnaces and so avoid rising energy prices as the Houthis block Red Sea shipments. It's a nervous time, even deep in the Brindabella bunker. The Grumpies are almost as shocked as Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman to see Donald Trump can't or won't help the Saudis fight the Houthis to free oil coming through Red Sea, instead he's negotiating with them.But the meat of the episode isn't the deepening global energy and economic crisis flowing out of the Middle East. The massive global news this week is that AUKUS has turned 5. Ahhh, they grow up so fast!!To join the celebrations, the Grumpies conduct a rigorous "meta analysis" of the collected tomes and insights released on this incredible milestone for the trilateral initiative.Most prominent here is the collected wisdom from the UK Council on Geostrategy. We're fortunate that these are not folk to be bogged down by any troubling perspectives: like this one: if the purpose of AUKUS is to deter Beijing, then the first 5 years has provided very bad news: China's production of nuclear subs is expanding rapidly and the quality of its nuclear subs is improving fast, on timelines that should embarrass all 3 AUKUS nations.Meanwhile, AUKUS won't deliver a single extra sub into the Indo Pacific before the mid-2040s compared with the US, UK and Aust plans before AUKUS was born.....Then there's the nasty issue that instead of working to integrate the UK and Australian defence industries into America's, the Trump Administration is pursuing its unilateral America First trade policy that is treating even its closest partners as competitors and adversaries....Fortunately, the higher minds in the AUKUS grifter and booster crowds are not distracted by pesky problems around actual relative military power or real world outcomes.They caution against the rookie error of seeing AUKUS as being about submarines at all. It's greatest achievements after 5 years and billions of dollars of mainly Australian money are:1. that it's Not Yet Dead, and2. that at the "conceptual level" it has reshaped the "geopolitical imaginary" and connected the Euro-Atlantic with the Indo Pacific ("scotching the narrative of British decline" along the way, apparently).To quote one author channeling the novel Dune: "Our plans are measured in centuries".Thank God for that. Take that Mr Xi Jinping.The episode ends in a chicken coop, where new UK Chancellor Healey shows that you are where you stand. When he stood on the dung heap that was the UK's Ministry of defence (MoD) , he resigned on principle because the Starmer government wouldn't spend more on defence. Now that he's the Chancellor, responsible for where all the money goes, he's doing just what he condemned months ago - and not funding the UK military to meet its needs. The Chancellor's dung heap has a different view out over the chicken coop than the view he had from the MoD.
- 4 weeks ago51 min
The Censorship Edition: slow change accelerates in politics, war, cricket & climate. But Govt censorship just keeps rolling
Marcus and Michael broadcast this edition of the Grumpy Strategists from two secure locations: Marcus kicking back birdwatching from SAA's home bunker in the Brindabellas outside Canberra, and from an undisclosed site in Secret Harbor WA. They apply Hemingway's line about bankruptcy (how does it happen? Slowly, then quickly) to the changes unravelling the world of Australian cricket, the conduct of war, political parties across Australia and the climate (with graphic evidence from the recent Nepal glacier disaster).It's not easy moving from cricketer Marnus Labuschagne to the performance of senior Commonwealth bureaucrats in parliamentary hearings. But the ambitious attempt by the leadership group of Public Servants running Australia's Federal departments and agencies to control what the public see of officials' performances and behaviour in open public hearings is an extraordinary example of overreach.It shows that Australia's most senior bureaucrats have a highly developed - and wholly misjudged - sense for the level of deference they should receive, even from our elected representatives in Parliament. It also shows that our nation's most senior public officials have a tin ear for how their own and their colleagues' obstructive and unimpressive public performances appear to anyone not in the Senior Executive Service of a government department in Canberra.This attempt at censorship of one of the few remaining key places where government policy and officials' expenditure of public money takes place - the Federal Parliament's open inquiries and hearings - builds on the last three decades of increasing government and official secrecy. It's a demonstration of why public distrust in our leaders and our institutions is falling, and why politics is now so volatile.Government ministers and senior officials attempting to control "the narrative" and withhold information that might be controversial or embarrassing is the opposite to what Australians need right now. This type of linguistic misdirection ensures public distrust in the Government decisions and directions will grow. It's the opposite to the open government that makes democracies powerful and successful through time.As an example, the gymnastic contortions Deputy Prime Minister (and still Defence Minister) Richard Marles has been exhibiting around his work to increase the US military's presence and operations out of Australia seems designed to maintain two fictions:1. that Australian has sovereign control of these US activities and would exercise that control in a crisis, and2. that the US presence, although permanent and getting larger, involves no basing of the American military in Australia.It's likely only Mr Marles and his mirror are convinced by these language games. It's certain decision makers in Beijing are more interested in physical facts than in detailed language that pretends a duck is not a duck.
- Aug 29, 202651 min
Australia's two "Wunderwaffen" can't both be magical: Hunter frigates and AUKUS subs
The Grumpies return to SAA's bunker deep in the Brindabella Hills. It's time to take stock of the $9 billion spent so far on 3 Hunter frigates for Australia's Navy, with $18 billion still to go. The right time to stop a bad project is now, before more years - and $18bn of scarce defence cash is wasted. The Hunters are meant to be the world's best anti-sub hunting ships - but they still rely on what many other cheaper ships have: a single sub-hunting helicopter with dipping sonar and torpedoes, and they have to move slowly to be quiet when sub hunting. The weapon system has a common and enormous weakness. Australians are meant to be believe two pieces of contradictory magical thinking at the same time: 1. these 3 (yes, 3) Hunter frigates are the answer to finding and sinking any sub on the planet and so will keep our sea lanes safe. and 2. Australia's future AUKUS subs are the oceans' 'apex predators' and can't be found by any adversary system on the planet - they can hunt surface ships at will and are invisible to anti-sub hunters (like, say the Hunter frigates).....How lucky is the Australian military to have found two true WonderWeapons?The Grumpies also look at Australia's counter drone strategy and achievements from the only real performance metric we have: hobbyist drones (and anyone else's) that want to fly into and over Australia's most important airbases can do so freely at will, unhindered by defensive measures that aren't defence personnel closing the blinds.....
- Aug 11, 202642 min
UK Count Binface's Australian Connection, AUKUS August, and Lethal Wellbeing
Michael calls in from Count Binface's campaign to beat Reform UK's Nigel Farage in the Clacton by-election. The Grumpies ponder a Binface-type manifesto for Australia - "I will cut your taxes and raise everyone else's," along with "The hand-dryer in the gents' toilet at the Great Himalayas restaurant Southport to be moved to a more sensible position". Practical politics for real people.Then Marcus unveils his path to make the AUKUS submarine program a truly national endeavour. It involves Strategic Analysis Australia being the centre of a new, mandatory, national contributions program centred on residents of the Australian Capital Territory. This leads naturally to Australia's developing contortions, somersaults & rotations around the fact that US submarines stationed in Australia will be carrying nuclear weapons, in breach of Australia's commitments to a nuclear free South Pacific under the Raratonga Treaty.The episode covers the astounding new release of Australia's 2026 Defence Innovation and Science strategy just two years on from the last one. Defence Science head Prof Tanya Monro (AC) uses this to prove that innovation requires nothing new and nothing to be achieved besides a font change and a modest cover page redesign.It ends with two philosophers: the new Chief of the Defence Force, Mark Hammond and his deputy Rob Chipman, and Grand Admiral Hammond's rousing commitment to an Australian military centred on Lethal Wellbeing.
- Aug 1, 202652 min
AUKUS subs' temporary base is permanent again: Mr Conroy loses his trousers in Washington, startling Elbridge Colby
Marcus undertakes an emergency mercy flight to Washington DC to comfort and counsel Department of War deputy Elbridge Colby, stunned by the stab in the back from America's Aussie ally on American access to a sub base in Western Australia. After telling Americans and the world that US subs use of the base had always been time limited and would end in 2032, Mr Conroy undertook an intense self-criticism session. Demonstrating his flexibility, he then directly contradicted himself on instruction from his Party senior, Deputy Prime Minister Marles. But the damage was done. It turns out America is just the most recent nation to experience the dangers of trusting Australian officials on anything to do with submarines.Beyond the support session for Mr Colby, the Grumpies find time to assess the Australian Defence organisation's latest achievements in transparency, contrasting these with the fresh approach of the local Canberra Integrity Commission that names everyone involved in a corrupt multi-million dollar construction program - because that is in the public interest. Meanwhile, the Federal government is fighting to not release unclassified information about nuclear waste plans, and Defence is suppressing the name of a senior officer facing allegations of financial and other misconduct.The episode ends with an assessment of prime minister Albanese's attempt at national leadership on AI, which is mystifying in its failure to engage with almost all the key issues.
- Jul 20, 202642 min
Grumpy Strategists episode 77: Those silly Canadians. Drone wars - US joins Ukraine. & Zumwalt: The Expense Continues
It's a packed episode from the SAA bunker deep in the Brindabella Hills: Marcus gets into the world of high fashion with Gina Rinehart and Pauline Hanson, Michael marvels at Canada's "Three Stupids" from their recent submarine decision (although it's not clear who the stupid ones are: the Canadians who will get actual, new, submarines within a decade, or us AUKUS folk Downunder). Then the Grumpies assess the American military's first active use in war of unmanned surface attack drones and outline the effects of Ukraine's increasingly long range strategic bombing campaign against Russia, using drones and domestically designed and made cruise missiles. The episode ends with the mystery of a secret court martial of a senior Australian Navy officer, another scathing Audit report on Defence's management of taxpayer $millions, and the eerily-similar emptiness of UK Government and Australian Government "new defence money" numbers and plans.
- Jul 10, 202652 min
Accountability is king, but no one is responsible. The tragedy of Australian Defence leaders forced to waste their time & our money
In Episode 76, the Grumpy Strategists ponder revelations of $29 billion of waste in just some of Australia's big defence projects from Minister for defence industry Pat Conroy. His answer: bold reform that changes things in minor ways that look eerily like the flawed approach Defence took a decade ago. Instead of the Vice Chief of Defence being responsible for decisions, under these bold reforms, the Vice Chief of Defence will be responsible. The good news is that for all the failure and waste of the last decade, it was the fault of no individual making no bad decisions. No. It was 'the system' that forced these powerful well-paid officials to NOT make decisions and be paralysed by paperwork. Now these fine leaders will be free to do what they have always wanted to do but were stopped from doing - by the system they built, lived in and presided over. It's a courageous set of bold changes that will clearly take some time - probably beyond any current minister or official's time in office - to really bear fruit. The Grumpies celebrate Australia's massive and growing Documentation Overmatch over even powerful potential adversaries like the Chinese military, who are reduced to firing nuclear capable missiles into our neighbourhood in the absence of effective paperwork or a meeting to go to.
- Jun 21, 202642 min
Unaccountable rises: A Defence leadership Trifecta performs at Parliament, while China shifts the ground on AUKUS
Marcus and Michael each pick their three stand out takeaways from Australian Defence officials testimony about delivery and performance to the Parliament. It's hard to pick winners in a field like this, but there's some overlap in the Grumpy choices. Taxpayers and the Parliament are not amongst them, unfortunately. Looking at the performance of senior Defence officials, 'Condescending emptiness' and 'falling upward' are terms that come to mind. None of this is building public trust in our Defence organisation or its leadership.Beyond the nasty realisation that senior Australian Defence officials are no longer servants of the public or the Parliament, but simply creatures of the Government of the day, it's good to have individual officials on the public record making claims that can be compared to evidence. Past statements (even carefully crafted avoiding manoeuvres) didn't stack up well for several - including incoming Chief of Australia's military, Mark Hammond. New Secretary Quinn displayed novel contortions to the English language and made a new 'AUKUS truth' that others then embraced.Then the Grumpies helicopter away from events in the Parliament and look at UK defence trouble, and the sobering realisation that AUKUS has turned into a rationing exercise: sharing out submarine numbers that would have existed without the whole AUKUS hoopla between the three Navies. Meanwhile, while AUKUS nations plan to get beyond rationing and increase submarine numbers sometime in the 2040s, China is shifting the AUKUS goalposts: out-producing the three nations on increasingly capable nuclear submarines, and building an extensive set of complementary undersea capabilities.Expectations that AUKUS might shift the military balance in the Pacific away from China look doomed to disappointment.
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About The Grumpy Strategists
The Grumpy Strategists chat about defence and security issues, from an Australian perspective. We say simple things about complicated issues that help cut through the politics and careful bureaucratic talking points. Critical but constructive conversations about the big security and technology issues affecting our world. RSSVERIFY
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